More commentary is coming in as regards Nokia’s (NOK) cut in its outlook this morning, with bears warning that things will get worse before they get better. It’s not just the continued deterioration of the Symbian-based phones, but also some risk still in the company’s ability to make its partnership with Microsoft (MSFT) pay off:
Jennifer Fritzsche, Wells Fargo: Reiterates a Market Weight rating on Nokia, while cutting her range of possible stock values to $6.90 to $7.40, from a prior $9 to $10. “While NOK has continued to say that 2011 is a transition year, we believe today’s announcement highlights how quickly the shift is occurring in the competitive environment. While we believe the Windows phone could be a transitional even for NOK there is still much to prove, in our view and much integration risk that comes with such an event.” Fritzsche cut her estimate for this year to 21 cents from a prior 59 cents per share in earnings, and cut her 2012 outlook to 49 cents from 77 cents.
Alkesh Shah, Evercore Partners: Reiterates an Underweight rating and cuts his price target to $6 from $8, writing that the company is not yet in the “transition trough,” arguing that the stock is “not cheap at 28 times our fiscal 2012 EPS forecast,” or 18 times, when factoring in cash per share. Smartphones are going to be under pressure from low-end smartphones, while Nokia’s feature phones will face competition from “white box manufacturers.” Things may “worsen over the next few quarters,” shah thinks, and “consensus estimates may still not be low enough.” Shah lowered his own EPS estimate for this year to 22 cents from 48 cents, and cut his 2012 estimate from 61 cents to 25 cents.
Meantime, Nokia shares have rallied from the lowest point of the day, now down just $1.18, or 14.5%, at $7.01, versus an intraday trough of $6.79.
Article courtesy of Tech Trader Daily