Piper Jaffray’s Gene Munster this morning writes of two “concrete data points” that he believes suggest Apple (AAPL) will introduce its next iPhone in September, rather than the usual summer introduction, as has been rumored.

He’s sticking with his estimate for 16 million iPhones to be sold this quarter, and 21 million in the September quarter.

One iPhone manufacturing equipment supplier with whom he’s spoken said that they had received orders for the equipment “several months later than usual.”

And secondly, the company has usually had a software event in the spring, followed by a hardware announcement at its summer developer conference. “There have been, on average, 79 days between the software event and the iphone hardware announcement,” he writes.

But it appears the summer conference, the Worldwide Developer Conference, is a focus on software, suggesting that a hardware unveiling is coming later on, in the fall. By the same day count, a June 6th introduction of a new iOS version should lead to a September 24 hardware announcement.

As for why the shift, Munster opines some features requiring software fine-tuning may not be fully baked yet. Also, Japan’s disaster and its impact on supplies could be a part of it. Deliberating over whether to include a 4G, or “LTE” modem in the phone may have delayed things. “Also, there has been chatter surrounding an audio codec socket in the next iPhone, for which a delayed product could have altered the iPhone development cycle.”

As for what it is, “We believe the fifth-generation iPhone, possibly branded the iPhone 4S, will have a similar form-factor to the iPhone 4 but a faster A5 chip, no LTE support, and possibly a larger 4″ display. And he opines, “Apple’s next iPhone could operate on Sprint’s [Nextel (S)] network.”

Apple shares today are down 97 cents, or 0.4%, at $339.56 in early trading.

Article courtesy of Tech Trader Daily

Small-cap ($367 million) patent holder Mosaid Technologies, which is based in Kanata, Ontario, in Canada, this afternoon fired the latest salvo in an ongoing patent battle with Cisco Systems (CSCO), complaining to the U.S. International Trade Commission that Cisco infringed six of its patents on networking technology, including power-over-ethernet, DSL access points, and voice technology for cable modems.

Mosaid, whose shares trade on the Toronto stock exchange under the symbol “MSD,” requested that the ITC halt import of Cisco products to the U.S.

Last August, Mosaid said that Cisco had requested a declaratory judgment of non-infringement of its products in light of nine U.S. patents held by Mosaid and requested a jury trial. Mosaid, beginning in October of 2009, had sent notice to Cisco saying the company infringed some of Mosaid’s 300 patents on various networking technologies, and demanded  Cisco pay for a license.

Mosaid is also suing chip maker Nvidia (NVDA) in the Disctrict Court for the Eastern District of Texas, Tyler Division, accusing the company last month of infringing its patents on power management in integrated circuits. It sued Japanese memory chip maker Elpida Memory in the same jurisdiction a week ago, charging the company infringes its patent on “field effect transistors,” or FETs.

And Mosaid also has a mammoth suit down in Texas, in the Marshall division, filed in March, against numerous companies, including Intel (INTC), Dell (DELL), Research in Motion (RIMM), chip maker Marvell Technology Group (MRVL), and several others, charging them with infringing on six patents relating to wireless technology, in particular as it pertains to wireless area networking.

Mosaid has had some patent victories of late. In December of last year, it got IBM (IBM) to license its technology applicable to application-specific integrated circuits (ASIC).

The company’s fiscal Q2 report last November featured a 17% jump in revenue on the licensing of wireless patents.

Article courtesy of Tech Trader Daily

Folks, I must admit that in the debate over “mobile payments,” I’ve been out of touch, of late.

Today, for example, I neglected to mention a longish note — 29 pages — that came out late Monday from Morgan Keegan, assembled by Tavis McCourt, who follows Apple (AAPL), as well as some colleagues of his, Matt McKee, who follows communications technology, and Roberd Dodd and Robert Ladyman, who follow transaction processing.

The note’s interesting, so I thought I’d mention it, even though I missed my chance earlier.

The authors offer the view that there is “substantial” potential for near-field communications (NFC) chips embedded in a phone as a mobile “digital wallet.”

But the obstacle is that the status quo is likely to prevail, basically because of the risk of fraud.

Merchants are likely to take awhile before they will move to NFC. Why? Because the most likely method of funding a mobile wallet, by tapping into a bank account, called “ACH,” doesn’t actually clear the funds till an overnight update happens, unlike traditional debit cards, where money is cleared right away. Which means merchants can be left hanging when there are insufficient funds.

Unless the banks can underwrite/insure the funds to protect against fraud, in a cost-effective manner for merchants, than the status quo will prevail, which means digital wallets will just be a thin layer riding on top of the current payment system of the “networks” — Visa (V), MasterCard (MA), etc.

And in that system, Visa and MasterCard still make most of the money. Which means little actual direct share of profit for Apple, Google (GOOG), and other smartphone vendors.

“The mobile payment opportunity is more of a cost burden than a real benefit” to Apple and others, they write. Putting an NFC chip in a handset can cost $2 to 4$ per handset, they note. Apple and others might not get any share of the actual transaction dollar amount, they argue.

One real beneficiary of any NFC buildout might be VeriFone (PAY), which already sells terminals for credit-card processing. They’ll have to supply merchants with point-of-sale terminals for the buildout of NFC. Morgan Keegan rates VeriFone’s shares Outperform.

The Morgan Keegan note echoes a lot of skepticism voice Monday by Toni Sacconaghi with Sanford Bernstein, who follows Apple. Among his concerns is that putting those NFC terminals in retail locations could take five years or more to happen.

And then putting an NFC chip in the iPhone could add $450 million to $900 million to the cost of goods for the thing Apple’s 2012 fiscal year, which could lower Apple’s gross margin by 0.4 to 0.7 percentage points. Then, too, it’s unclear if Apple and others could command a meaningful cut of the transaction, as McCourt and company point out.

Sacconaghi concludes we won’t see NFC in Apple’s next iPhone: “We do not expect the iPhone 5 to feature an NFC-based payments solution, and instead expect Apple to evaluate and come to market with partners or a complete solution later, perhaps when NFC infrastructure is more established.”

Then again, BoyGeniusReport’s Jonathan Geller speculates today Apple might actually be planning already to implement NFC terminals in its own retail network.

Article courtesy of Tech Trader Daily

Charlie Wolf of Needham & Co., who last week cut his rating on Research in Motion (RIMM) to Hold for its failure to maintain competitive products, today initiated coverage of Motorola Mobility (MMI) with a Hold rating, writing that Moto’s strategy of riding Google’s (GOOG) “Android” coat-tails could become increasingly risky this year.

There are two risks, as he sees it: there will be a proliferation of smartphone licensees of Android (some would say there are already a plethora), and, closely tied to that, there is a risk that Moto won’t be able to sufficiently differentiate itself as Android devices become commodities.

Moreover, he sees the same risk to Moto’s efforts with Android tablets, despite the fact that its “Xoom” tablet has gotten positive reviews so far.

“Since Android phones run on the same operating system, the major risk facing Motorola and the other licensees is the Android platform could commoditize, sending margins into value-destroying territories.”

Because smartphone growth is exploding, and because the devices are sold through carriers, subsidies have kept Android from commoditizing — meaning, no one buys them on price alone, he implies. As smartphone growth slows, Wolf expects carriers to press Moto and other vendors for lower prices on a wholesale basis.

He notes, “Google has licensed Android to over 40 manufacturers; and the only option for many second-tier licensees, located in emerging markets, is to capture share through aggressive pricing rather than differentiating features and services.”

On the strength of 20% revenue growth, Motorola Mobility should earn $0.85 in 2011 as the company leverages the fixed components in its expense structure. We do not anticipate that Motorola Mobility will experience smartphone sales shortfalls or increasing margin pressures in 2011 because the Android platform itself is growing so rapidly. However, 2012 could be a different story. We expect Motorola Mobility’s revenue growth to slow to 15% in that year. We also expect that pricing and gross margin pressures will begin to emerge as growth in the Android platform slows. With little additional leverage available in its expense structure, Motorola Mobility’s 2012 earnings should rise modestly to $1.10 per share.

I would note Wolf’s estimate is higher than the 80 cents analysts are estimating this year, but the 2012 figure for $1.10 is well below the consensus $1.70.

Moto shares today are down 41 cents, or 1.6%, at $25.13.

Article courtesy of Tech Trader Daily

Microsoft this morning confirmed that it has acquired internet video chat company Skype for $8.5 billion in cash.

And just like that, Microsoft has become a key player in the world of video chat. The deal is also Microsoft’s biggest acquisition yet, which tells us the company is finally looking closely at the possibilities of video chat after seemingly ignoring the technology for years.

Early reports of the deal surfaced last night following on the heals of word that Skype has been in deal talks with Facebook and Google.

Microsoft says that Skype will support the Xbox 360 and Kinect; Windows Phone (which doesn’t support front-facing cameras yet) and other devices; as well as software like Outlook. The company will also continue support for Skype on other platforms like Mac and Linux.

Skype will be transformed into a new division in Microsoft, and Skype CEO Tony Bates will be president of that division.

While many are already calling this acquisition the end of Skype, there’s no doubt that the video chat company has a lot to gain from Microsoft. For one, it won’t have to worry much about its revenue problems anymore. Plus, Skype will finally be able to bring on more developers to polish its software — recent updates have added some cool features like group video chat, but the software has also gotten slower and more difficult to use in the process.

Of course, there is some reason for concern. Microsoft hasn’t yet proven it can deftly integrate an acquired company into its fold. And Skype already went through a failed acquisition by eBay in 2005, so the company must be worried about being mismanaged once again. But overall, it seems like both Microsoft and Skype may be able to benefit from this union.

Tags: acquisitions, Kinect, video chat, Windows Phone 7, xbox 360

Companies: Microsoft, Skype

People: Tony Bates

Article courtesy of VentureBeat » deals

Joanne Feeney with Longbow Research, who follows Intel (INTC), today reflects on a story posted on SemiAccurate by Charlie Demerjian yesterday suggesting Apple (AAPL) may switch its laptop computers from Intel’s processors to its own chips based on designs of ARM Holdings (ARMH).

The story, “Apple Dumps Intel From Laptop Line,” is anything but tentative. Demerjian opines that Apple is waiting till the next version of ARM’s chips have full 64-bit memory addressing before making a switch. He points to remarks by another AMR licensee, Nvidia (NVDA), suggesting that that milestone will be in Q4 of next year or maybe Q1 of 2013. “It won’t be really soon, but we are told it is a done deal,” writes Demerjian.

Feeney observes that Demerjian is well-respected in tech circles and has been right in past observations, and so, “We view this as a reasonable possibility for Apple, but do not expect the Windows-based PC makers to follow suit.”

Apple, of course, has used its home-brewed A4 and A5 chips based on ARM modified CPU architecture to power its iPhone, iPod Touch, and iPad. The next version of Apple’s computer operating system, “Lion,” has some features that bring it closer to the look and feel of the iOS operating system on the iPhone, so it’s clear that Apple is trying to meld some aspects of its computers with its non-laptop, non-desktop machines.

But there’s enough uncertainty, in Feeney’s view, about a possible switch that it’s “not to be an immediate concern” for Intel’s stock.

Intel shares today are down 26 cents, or 1%, at $23.35. Apple shares are up $2.24, or 0.7%, at $348.99. And ARM shares are up $1.70, or 6%, at $29.21.

Article courtesy of Tech Trader Daily

Wikinvest, a finance startup that’s trying to challenge established sites like Yahoo Finance with more interactive, data-rich features, just announced that it will be launching a new product called SigFig.

So what does it actually do? Well, the site isn’t up yet, and it sounds like the site will only be placeholder until the service launches this summer. But Wikinvest says that SigFig will “provide personalized portfolio advice and investment analysis”.

On one level, that may sound like an incremental improvement to Wikinvest’s existing service, which allows already allows users to track stocks, especially their own portfolio. I suspect this is bigger, however. Not only is Wikinvest launching this under a new name, it has already recruited a number new investors and advisors specifically for SigFig, including Owen Van Natta (former chief operating officer of Facebook and former chief executive at Myspace), Steve Schultz (former general manager of Yahoo Finance), Charlie Cheever (Quora co-founder and former lead with Facebook Platform), and several others. (The press release isn’t clear about who actually invested and who is just an advisor.)

WIkinvest previously raised $2.5 million from DCM.

[image from the 20th Century Fox film Wall Street]
[image via

Tags: SigFig

Companies: wikinvest

People: charlie cheever, Owen Van Natta, Steve Schultz

Article courtesy of VentureBeat » deals

As you may have heard, Goldman Sachs will hold its annual shareholder meeting tomorrow. Unlike the past 12 years, in which the event has been held in New York, Friday’s meeting will go down in the Garden State. The bank has not explained the move, and while it does have a building across the river, one would hope you’re not falling for that.

The real reason more than likely has little to do with real estate. Legitimate possibilities include:

a) Hoping the Sisters of Saint Francis, who are none too pleased about Goldman’s compensation practices and who GS is not at all scared of but is “calling around” to make sure no protests are planned, regard NJ as the 7th circle of hell and will stay away

b) Shareholder Evelyn Davis, who Lloyd recently had the balls to tell he didn’t care about her silly little newsletter enough to pay for it, has always said “Millionaires don’t go to New Jersey”

c) Matt Taibbi has a warrant out for his arrest there

d) Less opportunity for scrutiny of managing director Richard Kimball’s after party at Satin Dolls

e) Lucas van Praag is the world’s number one Real Housewives of New Jersey fan and convinced LB to move the meeting so 1) he could grab lunch with the guy who’s set to be this season’s breakout star:

(wait for the last 15 seconds)

…and 2) he can blame calling a reporter a “prostitution whore” on being inspired by a “when in Rome” situation

f) wildcard

At Goldman Meeting, Pay Is Likely To Rule The Day [WSJ]

Article courtesy of Dealbreaker

Needham & Co. analyst Charlie Wolf this afternoon cut his rating on Research in Motion (RIMM) shares to Hold from Buy, arguing the company spent a decade as “a one-trick pony, delivering the gold standard in messaging services,” but that it’s just not enough anymore.

Wolf’s note follows presentations by management on Monday at RIM’s Capital Markets Day, which was accompanied by several product announcements as well. Yesterday, I covered some of the analyst reaction to Monday’s presentations.

As Wolf recounts history, since the iPhone’s debut in 2007, the smartphone market switched from corporate to consumer, and RIM tried to keep up by “adding the standard checklist of features to its BlackBerries.”

Unfortunately, as he sees it, “RIM’s skills as a hardware manufacturer have been more than offset by it ineptness in software development, the focus of competition today. The blame must be laid at the feet of the company’s Co-CEO’s who in their actions and words, appear to have no clue on how to mount a successful response.”

RIM’s warning last week that Q1 results will miss estimates is the “canary in the coal mine,” he thinks, suggesting that phones based on Google’s (GOOG) “Android” software are eating into the emerging market sales that have been considered a relative bastion of safety for RIM.

Wolf cut his estimate for the fiscal year ending next February dramatically, from $26.8 billion in revenue and $7.35 in earnings per share, to $23.1 billion and $6.

“We are not predicting the demise of RIM,” Wolf clarifies. “What we are predicting is that Android’s invasion of emerging markets is likely to slow the growth of new BlackBerry subscriber activations, removing a key ingredient for a buy rating.”

RIM shares are down 43 cents, almost 1%, at $45.49.

Update: I would point out that Wolf’s note follows some hours after a report by Charter Equity Research analyst Ed Snyder, who cut his rating on the stock to Underperform from Market Perform, specifically calling for heads to roll in the executive suite. My friend Eric Savitz at Forbes has a good write-up of the matter.

Article courtesy of Tech Trader Daily

Intel’s (INTC) today announced it has “reinvented transistors” with a new manufacturing technique it calls “Tri-Gate,” and nicknamed the “3-D transistor” that is meant to increase performance 37% over its current line. Intel will start manufacturing the chips at 22-nanometer feature sizes later this year in a chip called “Ivy Bridge.”

Intel describes the new feature as a “three-dimensional fin that rises up vertically from the silicon substrate,” as opposed to traditional transistors made up of grooves etched into silicon and subsequently built upon in layers of various materials deposited onto the chip.

The point is that the “gate,” the thing that turns current on and off, wraps around the “channel,” the thing through which current flows, on three sides. That is supposed to offer greater control for turning on and off the flow of current. I’ve posted the delightful video by Intel below explaining this better than I can.

Analysts have been looking forward to Ivy Bridge to provide a significant improvement in CPU and graphics performance while offering much lower power consumption, as part of Intel’s bid to beat back competition in mobile devices from chips based on designs by ARM Holdings (ARMH).

Today’s announcement had been hinted at several times, most recently during the conference call to discuss Intel’s blow-out Q1 report on April 19th, when CEO Paul Otellini reiterated that an upcoming technology at 22-nanometer would be “revolutionary.”

Glen Yeung of Citigroup, who’s been avidly following the hush-hush work on 3-D at Intel, today offers a rousing endorsement of Intel’s competitive position versus ARM, reiterating a Buy rating on the stock and a $27 price target.

Writing that Intel has a three- to four-year lead on other chip makers, Yeung points out that the 3-D technique will reduce current leakage when the chip is sitting around doing nothing, and reduce operating voltage when it is busy doing work. He thinks the latter aspect offers the biggest gains for Intel.

We expect multi-gate will vault Intel squarely into the battle for mobile devices (tablets and handsets). We expect [thermal design points] for handset/tablet processors could drop to 0.5 watts to 1 watt, all else being equal, clearly competitive with ARM. Notebook battery life, all else being equal, will double.

Raymond James analyst Hans Mosesmann, who has an Outperform rating on Intel shares, writes, “Intel’s 3-D Tri-Gate transistor breakthrough is a big deal and is incrementally positive for the shares.” He notes that GlobalFoundries, the contract chip maker that spun out of AMD (AMD) is also working in this area, and that Samsung (SSNLF) is considering 3-D technology.

Regardless of what it does for Intel’s competitive standing, the 3-D chip fabrication is a remarkable threshold for the industry. To give you a sense of how far things have come in 3-D chips in two decades, author Don Lindsay with Microprocessor Report wrote as follows in 1993 about the state of the art — basically, gluing things together:

Although multichip modules (MCMs) are fairly new for production parts, they are already reaching their limits in research projects, and to go much further requires a 3-D approach. Several research groups have glued SRAM chips into stacks, with interconnect traces down one face of the stack. One of these groups thins the chips first to get more compact stacks. Beyond this is the possibility of stacking things that are really thin–on the order of a few microns–producing a chunk of silicon resembling a tiny multi-layer PC board using vias for interchip communication.

Intel shares this afternoon are up 29 cents, or 1.3%, at $23.34.

Article courtesy of Tech Trader Daily