Shares of SunPower (SPWRA) are down 14 cents, or 0.7%, at $21.24 after the company last night met pre-announced Q1 results but forecast the current quarter’s revenue below analysts’ expectations and said that it will revise its full-year forecast later this quarter.
The company is in the midst of going through a tender offer by oil company Total (TOT), which plans to buy up to 60% of the stock.
This morning, there’s one downgrade of the stock, from Buy to Hold, by ThinkEquity’s Colin Rusch, who cut his price target to $19 from $22. He cut his 2011 estimate to $1.13 in EPS, down from $2.15 previously, and cut his revenue estimate to $2.44 billion from $2.86 billion.
“While we are bullish on SunPower’s position and believe the company is executing well on its cost reduction and should benefit from the flexibility of its business model as the solar industry rationalizes, we are lowering estimates for 2011 and 2012 to reflect a more cautious outlook,” Rusch writes. Rusch expects the company may need to write down “at least a portion of its SunRay acquisition,” even though it should be able to monetize its land and permits, he thinks. He also thinks SunPower will move closer to 75% of shipments coming from modules, versus an expectation previously of just 50%.
Bullish!
Robert Stone, Cowen & Co.: Reiterates an Outperform rating, while raising his revenue estimate for this year to $2.83 billion from a prior $2.39 billion, and cutting his EPS estimate to $2.05 per share from a prior $2.11. He also cut his numbers for revenue and profit for next year. He sees the company benefitting from a shift to rooftop installations in Italy and away from utility-scale projects: “About 15MW of UPP projects (vs. 130MW planned) are expected in Italy. But, new FIT policies should favor SPWRA’s strength in rooftops; it is #2 in Italy with 500 dealers, and the small system segment is uncapped.” The company’s North America business, 45% of revenue in the quarter, should help as well, he thinks.
Ben Pang, Caris & Co.: Reiterates an “Above Average” rating and a $24 price target. “The near term performance of SPWRA shares will be capped by the offer from TOT,” he writes, though he expects “no roadblocks” to the offer. As for the expected forecast update, he thinks it will be below the current consensus estimate of $2.8 billion in revenue and $1.92 EPS. Hence, Pang cut his 2011 estimate to $2.65 billion and $1.81, from a prior $2.85 billion and $2.11. “We do not expect any new bidders to come in above TOT’s offer of $23.25, but a resolution to some of the overhanging legisla- tive issues should be an additional positive catalyst.”
Bearish!
Mark Bachman, Auriga Securiites: Reiterates a Sell rating and a $13 price target. The Total bid puts a floor under the stock, and he wouldn’t recommend shorting the shares, but, “but we do suggest existing holders of SPWRA and SPWRB tender their shares and/or consider selling June or July calls against any shares at these levels given risk of the deal possibly not completing.” The Q1 report was “the worst we have heard so far this reporting season,” he writes. SunPower has gone from net cash to net debt on the balance sheet, he writes, while inventory days tripled. “In short, this is not the company of a few years ago and investors looking for exposure to the solar space are encouraged to look elsewhere.”
Timothy Arcuri, Citigroup: Reiterates a Hold rating on the shares and a $16.50 price target. “While inventory should begin to clear given resumption in the Italian rooftop and a seasonally better German market,” he writes, it will come at a price because Chinese solar modules are selling for about $1.40, below the $2 per watt or so that SunPower is used to getting. “So we see further risk in estimates.” Arcuri is maintaining his 87-cent EPS estimate for this year.
Article courtesy of Tech Trader Daily



