Shares of Dell (DELL) are up 67 cents, or 4%, at $16.57 this morning, following better-than-expected fiscal Q1 results last night and a reaffirmation of its year outlook.

(I would note that Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) shares continue to trade down this morning, following a raft of downgrades yesterday. The stock is currently off 67 cents, almost 2%, at $36.24.)

No upgrades so far this morning, that I can see, but estimates and price targets are going up all around, but there is still a substantial caution about whether Dell can maintain its operating profit margin, given that it was margin that allowed the company to beat earnings last night even as it missed revenue estimates:

Kevin Hunt, Auriga: Reiterates a Buy rating, and a $25 price target. Hunt raised his full-year EPS estimate to $1.86 from $1.65, leaving essentially unchanged his EPS estimate of $64.7 billion. The question is margin, he suggests, and what to believe: “Dell increased its full year operating income guidance to a range of 12-18% y/y growth from a prior view of 6-12%. While that is impressive growth, it is far short of the 74% y/y growth just posted by Dell in the first quarter, and implies a significant deceleration in margins as the year progresses, with negative profit growth later in the year, at a time when revenue is being guided upward.” Probably just being conservative, says Hunt, but it’s also possible PC pricing gets more “aggressive” this year, or component pricing rises. “So some caution does appear prudent.”

Ben Reitzes, Barclays Capital: Reiterates an Equal Weight rating on the shares, while raising his price target to $17 from $15. “We continue to believe Dell margins may have peaked,” he writes. Problem is, a wind-down of the corporate PC refresh cycle means Dell “will need to adjust pricing a bit to provide more balance,” given that revenue underwhelming in each segment in the quarter, with desktop revenue down 8% and notebook revenue of $4.7 billion slightly less than expected. Server and networking revenue of $1.97 billion was also light, as was storage revenue and software and peripherals. Services was a bright spot and it “seems like that business is on solid footing.” Reitzes raised his year EPS estimate to $1.90 from $1.70.

Brian Marshall, Gleacher & Co.: Reiterates a Neutral rating, while raising his price target to $16 from $15, though he’s not convinced Dell can maintain its operating margin improvement. “Management’s FY12 operating income guidance is for growth of 12-18% Y/Y. This implies an operating margin outlook of 7.0% at the midpoint of guidance (i.e., a material decline over the next three quarters) […] There must be a decelerating operating margin trajectory (i.e., a 220bp decline from the most recent quarter).” Marshall raised his year EPS estimate to $1.74 from $1.65 previously, on revenue of $63.5 billion, up slightly.

Shaw Wu, Sterne Agee: Reiterates a Neutral rating and a $15 price target, while raising his fiscal year ESP estimate to $2 from a prior $1.70. However, his concerns are not allayed: “we remain concerned with the company’s longer-term fundamental position and believe the company needs to take more aggressive steps to reinvent itself. In our view, the company faces formidable competitors Apple (AAPL), HP, Acer, Toshiba, and Lenovo in its core PC business, and HP, IBM (IBM), Cisco Systems (CSCO), and Oracle (ORCL) in the enterprise business.”

Richard Kugele, Needham & Co.: Reiterates a Hold rating, while raising his year estimate for EPS to $1.88, leaving his revenue more or less unchanged at $64.9 billion. “We believe that to warrant further appreciation in the stock, the street would need to: 1) suspend its negative view on tablets, 2) assume a near-term recovery in the consumer PC market, and 3) believe Dell will be able to maintain or expand margins even in the pending less favorable component environment (all of which we see as unlikely at this time).”

Keith Bachman, BMO Capital Markets: Reiterates a Market Perform rating, while raising his price target to $19 from $18. “Given weak stock price performance by HPQ, and strong stock performance by IBM (IBM), we believe that investors will consider and indeed put some new money to work in Dell,” writes Bachmn, though he’s not convinced there’s enough upside to raise his rating on the shares.

Article courtesy of Tech Trader Daily

$$$ In Europe, a first call for IMF chief Strauss-Kahn to quit (WaPo)

$$$ This is what Ben Stein had to say about the Dominique Strauss-Kahn situation: “The prosecutors say that Mr. Strauss-Kahn “forced” the complainant to have oral and other sex with him. How? Did he have a gun? Did he have a knife? He’s a short fat old man. They were in a hotel with people passing by the room constantly, if it’s anything like the many hotels I am in. How did he intimidate her in that situation? And if he was so intimidating, why did she immediately feel un-intimidated enough to alert the authorities as to her story?” (American Spectator)

$$$ A Once-Tight Flock at Goldman, Now Scattered [Dealbook]
$$$ Skepticism grows on Geithner’s debt limit deadline (Reuters)

$$$ losing faith in world economy (FT)

$$$ Hedge Funds Line Up for AIG Pitch Meeting (CNBC)

$$$ LinkedIn IPO: Biggest Price Bump Since Tech Bubble (Deal Journal)

$$$ Goldman’s Hatzius: The Next US Recession ‘Is Years Away‘ (CNBC)

$$$ Barclays Pays Its Top Staff 7% Interest on Five-Year Deferred Cash Bonuses (Bloomberg)

$$$ A colour-coded guide to the Greek crisis (BofA/ML via FT Alphaville)

$$$ Reality vs. Matt Taibbi, Part I [Stone Street Advisors]

$$$ Warren Buffett’s Ride on the Rails Is Paying Off (Businessweek)

$$$ Suit vs Citigroup execs over mortgages tossed out (Reuters)

$$$ Kohn ‘regrets’ pain of millions in financial crisis (FT)

$$$ fine fat people for not dieting? (BBC)

$$$ Famed NYC eatery Elaine’s to close down six months after owner Elaine Kaufman dies (NYDN)

Article courtesy of Dealbreaker

As I wrote earlier, Cisco Systems (CSCO) was the subject of two downgrades this morning as the Street mulls the difficult work the company has ahead of it to fix its business.

The stock is currently down 93 cents, or 5%, at $16.85.

But it’s not all glum: there are some upbeat notes out there as well. In particular, I would note that folks are raising their EPS estimates this morning on cost-cutting expectations even as they take down their revenue numbers for Cisco for this year and next.

Brent Bracelin, Pacific Crest: Reiterates an Outperform rating and lowers his price target to $22 from $25. “Simplifying and streamlining Cisco’s operating model are now under way […] If 30% to 50% of these savings fall to the bottom line, EPS could be $0.04 to $0.07 higher.” And he raised his EPS estimates for this fiscal year to $1.61 from $1.59, and for next year to $1.75 from $1.72.

Brian White, Ticonderoga Securities: Reiterates a Buy rating and a $28 price target. “The combination of axing unrealistic financial targets and taking full responsibility for Cisco’s challenges over the past year, while outlining actions to simplify the company […] was a refreshing tone that we believe is setting up the early stages of a turnaround at Cisco,” writes White. “Given the combination of these steps taken by Cisco and a bottoming out in the company’s sales cycle, we believe value investors should now begin buying the shares.” White raised his full-year EPS target to $1.61 from $1.55, and for 2012, he raised his estimate to $1.74 from $1.70.

John Marchetti, Cowen & Co.: Reiterates an Outperform rating, though he thinks the shares are likely to be merely in line with the market “near-term” because last night’s remarks from the company “do little to answer questions on growth and margins.” “investors are unlikely to view the stock as cheap until visibility on growth improves and the company can outline a path to more stable gross margins.” He raised his EPS estimate for this year to $1.60 from $1.59, and to $1.78 from $1.75 for next year.

Brian Marshall, Gleacher & Co.: Reiterates a Neutral rating on the stock. “The company is a tanker ship that will require multiple quarters to fix its long-term financial model. Cisco continues to face margin pressure from smaller competitors […] such as Juniper Networks (JNPR), Check Point Software Technologies (CHKP), Riverbed Networks (RVBD), F5 Networks (FFIV), Acme Packet (APKT), Aruba Networks (ARUN), Fortinet (FTNT), Brocade (BRCD), etc.” Marshall raised his 2011 EPS estimate to $1.60 from $1.58, but cut his 2012 estimate to $1.68 to $1.71. On the plus side, Marshall notes that Cisco has “some of the most attractive secular growth opportunities in the information technology industry” in front of it, and that its “penetration” of its potential addressable market of perhaps $150 billion is just 30% based on revenue of $42 billion a year. He thinks Cisco’s “ace in the hole” are “vblocks,” data center capacity delivered as a “utility” through an “IT-as-a-service” model.

Article courtesy of Tech Trader Daily

Canaccord Genuity analyst Mike Walkley today writes that his “checks” of Apple’s (AAPL) business in April suggest iPhone 4 topped sales at AT&T (T) and Verizon Communications (VZ) last month. iPad 2 sales were also “very strong” in April.

Walkley predicts Apple customers will tend to stick with its “i” devices because of the Apple ecosystems’s “higher price points for tablet applications,” a phrase that is somewhat mysterious. I am assuming he is referring to the amount invested by consumers in amassing the various apps they have on the iPhone, etc.

Walkley is modeling Apple’s iOS device installed base to rise from 189 million currently to 246 million by the end of this fiscal year that wraps up in September, and 404 million by the end of next year.

Walkley thinks that the high stickiness, if you will, of Apple customers is complemented by the “higher-end markets” it is in, and that as result, replacement rate of iPhones should be about 40% per year, above the industry average of 35%. Walkley expects Apple “will maintain dominant value share of both the tablet and smartphone markets to drive healthy long-term earnings growth.”

Walkley maintains a Buy rating on Apple shares and a $480 price target.

Article courtesy of Tech Trader Daily

ThinkEquity’s Krishna Shankar this morning raised his rating on SanDisk (SNDK) shares to Buy from Hold, arguing that the industry economics for flash memory are “balanced.”

Shankar raised his price target to $60 from $50.

Shankar sees 75% to 80% bit growth for NAND flash in 2011 and 2012, and 30% to 35% decline in average selling price.

Further, Shankar sees Sandisk as having a lead in process technology, with partner Toshiba (TOSBF) at 24 nanometer and with 2 bits to 3 bits per cell, with a further advantage down the road at 19 nanometer with MLC technology.

Helping the company’s market outlook is that “marginal players” in DRAM in Taiwan and Japan have either left the business or consolidated, and that there are not likely to be more “greenfield” DRAM and NAND chip factories until the second half of this year.

Then, too, new devices such as tablet computers, and rapidly expanding product categories such as smartphones, are “voracious” consumers of flash memory.

The company is “among the best-managed semiconductor companies,” he writes.

Shankar is modeling revenue for SanDisk of $5.83 billion and $4.60 in EPS this year, versus the consensus $5.76 billion and $4.42 per share.

SanDisk shares are up 21 cents, or half a point at $47.36.

Article courtesy of Tech Trader Daily

Commodity hedge fund loses $400m in oil slide (FT)
Clive Capital, the world’s largest commodity hedge fund, has been left nursing losses of more than $400m as a result of the collapse in the price of oil last week…Others, including Astenbeck Capital, the Phibro-owned fund run by Andrew Hall, are thought to have taken double-digit percentage point losses to their portfolios, according to investors…In a letter sent to investors on Friday and seen by the Financial Times, Clive said it was down 8.9 per cent on the week after what it called “extraordinary” price movements on Thursday. Clive’s management said it was at a loss to explain what had caused crude oil markets to be “annihilated”.

Silver-Mad Small Investors Fueled an Epic Rise and Fall (WSJ)
Behind silver’s historic collapse is a market that came loose of its moorings, fueled by speculative traders, many of them small investors who may have jumped in at just the wrong moment. “If gold is a Monte Carlo casino, silver is a slot machine in Las Vegas,” says Andy Smith, a senior metals strategist at Bache Commodities.

Euro Nations Divided Over Greek Debt (WSJ)
Finance chiefs from the most important euro nations discussed Greece’s problems—and other issues, including Portugal’s imminent aid package—at informal talks in Luxembourg on Friday. The gathering, one of many informal meetings of select European officials since the financial crisis began, turned into a media circus after Germany’s Spiegel Online reported its existence Friday—and claimed it had been called because Greece was thinking of leaving the euro zone. The report sent the euro tumbling…”We are not discussing the exit of Greece from the euro area. This is a stupid idea and an avenue we would never take,” said the host of Friday’s meeting, Luxembourg Premier Jean-Claude Juncker.

EU eyes lower rates for Greece, Ireland amid chaos (Reuters)
The European Union is looking to lower interest rates on bailout loans to Greece and Ireland and is working on a second rescue for Athens in a chaotic effort to prevent a disorderly debt restructuring. The executive European Commission said on Monday it hoped to see a decision within weeks on reducing the rate charged to Ireland to make Dublin’s debt more sustainable.

Irish to Avoid ‘Doomsday,’ Honohan Says as Rescheduling Mooted (Bloomberg)
Irish central bank Governor Patrick Honohan said the country will avoid economic “doomsday,” as a government minister and prominent professor suggested the nation should reschedule debts from its as much as 85 billion-euro ($121 billion) bailout. Honohan was responding to Morgan Kelly, an economics professor dubbed Ireland’s Doctor Doom, who wrote in the Irish Times newspaper that Ireland faces a “prolonged and chaotic national bankruptcy.”

U.S. Will Urge China to Boost Interest Rates in Washington Talks (Bloomberg)
Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner will urge China to allow higher interest rates when he meets with Chinese leaders this week, as the U.S. extends its push for a stronger yuan.

Private Equity Has A Horse In This Race (Dealbook)
Carl Pascarella, an executive at TPG, the private equity firm, owns a piece of the the colt that shocked the horse racing world on Saturday with a come-from-behind victory. Animal Kingdom, who had never run on dirt and only had four races under his belt, covered the mile and a quarter in 2:02.04.

AIG Fall Blunts Talk Of Taxpayer Gain (WSJ)
What Treasury chooses to do with its AIG shares “is essentially a political decision,” says Jay Ritter, a finance professor at the University of Florida. “Government officials and politicians would like to say we broke even and didn’t lose any taxpayer money” in the AIG bailout, he says. “But as a taxpayer, I would be happy if we got out close to whole, and losing a little would ultimately be a good outcome” given the amount that was committed to the AIG bailout, Mr. Ritter says.

Fee Pitched for Fast Firms (WSJ)
Sen. Charles Schumer told regulators that sophisticated electronic traders should bear the cost of monitoring their dealings, with special fees assessed to firms that issue and then rapidly cancel securities orders.

UBS fears missing ambitious targets (FT)
Oswald Grübel, chief executive, surprised analysts last month by maintaining his medium-term goals of SFr20bn (€16bn) in annual revenues and SFr6bn in pre-tax profits for the group’s recovering investment bank. UBS’s performance targets were set in late 2009, before the new Basel III framework was finalised and before regulators in Switzerland proposed their own additional capital requirements for the group…However, according to senior UBS bankers, there is a growing acceptance that the targets are aspirational and will be extremely difficult to achieve over the next two years.

Moody’s: Expiring of US muni backstops going well (Reuters)
An expected flood of expirations of liquidity facilities on U.S. municipal debt this year is so far going well, Moody’s Investors Service reported on Monday.

SEC reform proposal threatens ‘dark pools’ (FT)
The US Securities and Exchange Commission is considering a proposal to move more trading back on to exchanges from alternative venues such as “dark pools”, which has drawn sharp criticism from banks and many trading firms. David Shillman, associate director of the SEC’s division of trading and markets, told the Financial Times that a so-called “trade at” rule is “very much in play. There’s interest in it”. The “trade at” rule, which would require non-exchange venues to improve on the displayed market price, is a response to concerns among some academics and market participants that a rising share of trading happening outside of exchanges is making trading more expensive and difficult.

US Q1 home values see biggest drop since 2008–Zillow (Reuters)
Zillow said its home value index fell 3 percent in the first three months of the year from the previous quarter, and was down 8.2 percent year-over-year.

Seeking Business, States Loosen Insurance Rules (NYT)
Vermont, and a handful of other states including Utah, South Carolina, Delaware and Hawaii, are aggressively remaking themselves as destinations of choice for the kind of complex private insurance transactions once done almost exclusively offshore. Roughly 30 states have passed some type of law to allow companies to set up special insurance subsidiaries called captives, which can conduct Bermuda-style financial wizardry right in a policyholder’s own backyard.

Berkshire Hathaway profit falls on Japan (Reuters)
Berkshire reported a net profit of $1.51 billion, or $917 per Class A share, compared with a profit of $3.63 billion, or $2,272 per Class A share, a year earlier. The company took a provision of $1.7 billion in the first quarter for catastrophe losses, primarily for the Japan earthquake but also from a quake in New Zealand and flooding in Australia…Berkshire also recorded losses of $506 million in the first quarter for stocks where the company’s investment was in a loss position and that loss was not considered temporary. The biggest share of the loss was an impairment on part of Berkshire’s stake in Wells Fargo, and the rest came from an impairment on the stake in Kraft Foods.

HSBC Costs Rise on New Hires and Customer Compensation (Bloomberg)
Costs as a proportion of income rose to 60.9 percent from 49.6 percent, the London-based bank said today in a statement. Net income rose 58 percent to $4.15 billion compared with $2.63 billion in the year-earlier period, the bank said in its first detailed quarterly earnings report. The shares fell.

U.S. gas prices hit $4 a gallon, but may retreat (Reuters)
The national average for self-serve, regular unleaded gas was $4 per gallon on May 6, up 11.98 cents from April 22, according to the nationwide Lundberg Survey. This was still below the all-time high of $4.11 on July, 11, 2008, and last week’s fall in crude oil prices may lead to a 8- to 12-cent drop in prices at the pump over the next few weeks, according to Trilby Lundberg, the survey’s editor.

Sweep is an ugly ending for Lakers and a bittersweet one for Phil Jackson (LA Times)
The Mavericks’ 122-86 blowout victory in Game 4, which completed their 4-0 sweep of the Western Conference semifinal series, perhaps came at the right time for the Lakers. They appeared to be teetering, perhaps because this was the 77th postseason game they had played since 2008, nearly an extra 82-game regular season in a four-year span. “I was talking to Kobe [after the game] and we both agreed it was better to lose now than to get to the [NBA] Finals and lose,” Jackson said. “Going all the way and losing in the Finals, now that’s really tough.”

What was in medicine chests at bin Laden compound? (MSNBC)
Either Osama bin Laden or those who lived with him at the Pakistan compound where he was killed apparently suffered from stomach ulcers, high blood pressure and nerve pain — plus the normal ailments that affect a family with children, according to a pharmacist’s analysis of medications reportedly found at the site. In addition, the medicine cache was said to contain Avena syrup, a botanical product that has at least two uses: as an artificial sweetener often used for a sour stomach and as “natural Viagra” that could be used to increase sexual desire and potency.

Article courtesy of Dealbreaker

Goldman BRIC Fund Among Most Hurt in ‘Panic’ Commodities Selling (Bloomberg)
The $831 million Goldman Sachs BRIC Fund (GBRAX) and the $825 million Templeton BRIC Fund (TABRX), which focus on Brazil, China, India and Russia, both fell 5.7 percent in the week ended yesterday. The funds, from New York-based Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and San Mateo, California’s Franklin Resources Inc., lost the most among diversified equity funds with more than $500 million in assets and at least 20 percent in energy or basic materials stocks, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Glencore IPO Orders Continue To Roll In (WSJ)
Glencore on Wednesday set the price range for the offer at 480 pence to 580 pence, valuing it at around $61 billion, including the new money being raised. Around $10 billion in shares will be sold, plus a $1 billion overallotment. Most of the offer is in the form of new shares. Bankers said the order book was covered after the first day of subscriptions. One on Friday said a “material” amount of orders were added to the total on Thursday, even as oil and silver prices slid sharply.

Paulson’s Biggest Fund Said to Be Down in 2011 After April Gain (SFGate/Bloomberg)
Paulson’s Advantage Plus Fund, which uses strategies designed to profit from corporate events such as takeovers and bankruptcies, is down 1.7 percent in 2011 after gaining 0.1 percent last month, said the person, who asked not to be identified because the returns are private. The fund’s gold- denominated share class rose 6.3 percent in April and 4.9 percent this year.

Bank of America Had Positive Trading Revenue Every Day of First Quarter (Bloomberg)
Trading-related revenue was positive every day and exceeded $25 million on 98 percent of days during the year’s first three months, the Charlotte, North Carolina-based lender said today in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. In 2010, it had gains on 90 percent of trading days, with perfect records in that year’s first and third quarters, according to previous filings.

AIG quarterly net income drops 85% (MarketWatch)
First-quarter net income attributable to AIG was $269 million, compared with $1.8 billion a year earlier, the company said. On a per-share basis, AIG reported a net loss of 35 cents, versus a profit of $2.66 a share in the first quarter of 2010…AIG expected to make 34 cents a share, according to a FactSet survey of three analysts. A Thomson Reuters survey of three analysts came up with a consensus estimate of a loss of 15 cents a share.

JPMorgan Chase Said to Be Subpoenaed by SEC Over Mortgage Debt Documents (Bloomberg)
JPMorgan received a subpoena from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission over failed mortgages, a person familiar with the investigation said, as the agency probes banks including Credit Suisse Group AG for allegedly failing to share refunds from sellers of faulty debt.

RBS core operating profit jumps 25 pct (Reuters)
RBS, which is majority-owned by the British government, made a first quarter loss of 528 million pounds ($841.5 million) after it racked up 1.3 billion pounds in bad debts at Ulster Bank… RBS said Irish loan losses would stay high this quarter before “gradually declining” in the second half of the year. The bank’s core business – namely its main retail and investment banking arms and excluding its insurance unit which is due to be sold off or floated on the stock market in 2012 – had an operating profit of about 2 billion pounds a quarter.

Schumer Tilts Toward Offer by Germans for Big Board (WSJ)
Chuck Schumer, a New York Democrat, remains publicly neutral on the competing proposals: a roughly $10 billion bid from Deutsche Börse AG, which agreed in February to buy NYSE Euronext, and a hostile, $11 billion offer from Nasdaq OMX Group Inc. and IntercontinentalExchange Inc.  But Mr. Schumer is favoring the German deal as the best way to protect New York, according to the people who have spoken with him. Mr. Schumer focuses on the question so much that he tracks the number of Bloomberg terminals sold in major financial capitals.

Coffee, Sex, Blowing Nose May Increase Risk of a Stroke, Dutch Study Finds (Bloomberg)
Researchers from University Medical Center in Utrecht, the Netherlands, analyzed 250 patients who survived such a stroke and identified eight risk factors tied to the event. They included drinking a cup of coffee, which carried the highest risk, having sex, physical exercise, nose blowing, straining to defecate, drinking cola and being startled or angry.

Carlyle faces questions over China investments (FT)
Carlyle, the US private equity group, is facing questions over its investments in two Chinese companies that have been accused of fraud and suspended from trading on stock exchanges in Hong Kong and New York. The scrutiny comes at an unwelcome time for Carlyle, as the manager of some $106bn in funds seeks to burnish its reputation ahead of a planned initial public offering. China Forestry, a Hong Kong-listed plantation operator in which Carlyle has an 11 per cent stake, and China Agritech, a Nasdaq-listed fertiliser maker in which Carlyle has a 22 per cent stake, have both had their shares suspended from trading in recent months.

CME launches London clearing house (FT)
CME Group is considering offering clearing services to exchanges in Europe as the largest US futures exchange establishes a beachhead in the region by launching a new clearing house in London on Friday.
The move into clearing in Europe highlights the Chicago-based operator’s ambitions to expand into Europe, where CME’s two biggest rivals, IntercontinentalExchange (ICE) and Deutsche Börse, have established clearing businesses.

US Lawmaker Wants To Require Whistleblowers To Report Internally (DJ via WSJ)
A U.S. House Republican lawmaker plans to introduce legislation that would require whistleblowers to report wrongdoing to their employer to be eligible for a Securities and Exchange Commission bounty program, Dow Jones reported.

Indonesia Imposes More Sanctions on Citigroup (WSJ)
Bank Indonesia on Friday announced a raft of additional sanctions against Citigroup Inc. as investigations continue into the alleged embezzlement of millions of dollars and the death of a debtor…[Bank Indonesia Deputy Governor Budi] Rochadi said, the central bank imposed a number of restrictions on Citi’s operations in Indonesia, including a one-year ban on the local unit signing new clients to its Citigold wealth-management unit and a two-year ban on it issuing new credit cards. The central bank also forbade Citi’s local unit from opening new branches in Indonesia for one year and imposed an offshore travel ban on some of the unit’s executives, effective from Friday, while investigations continue.

Allen Stanford Indicted Again as Prosecutors Drop 7 of 21 Criminal Charges (Bloomberg)
The original indictment contained 21 criminal counts. The new one contains 14, including conspiracy to commit money laundering, obstruction of a U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission investigation, wire fraud and mail fraud. Two wire-fraud counts were dropped as were five mail-fraud charges. Stanford, 61, still faces five of each count, conviction for any one of which could result in a maximum sentence of 20 years in prison.

A wide-open Derby field of odds (USA Today)
With so many unknowns among local 3-year-olds, it might pay to take a chance on Master of Hounds, a new face shipping in from afar — Ireland, via Dubai in the United Arab Emirates. Trained by perpetual Irish champion Aiden O’Brien and owned by the imposing Coolmore partnership, Master of Hounds has never raced on dirt, but the same can be said for several other leading Derby contenders. Bred to stay every yard of the 1¼-mile Derby distance, Master of Hounds was beaten by a nose in his last start, the UAE Derby run on a synthetic surface in March. Master of Hounds stalked the leaders, burst to the front in the stretch and was just caught after battling gamely all the way to the finish.

Article courtesy of Dealbreaker

Shares of JDS Uniphase (JDSU) are up $1.85, or 9.3%, at $21.85, continuing the stock’s big after-hours jump last night after JDSU beat Q3 estimates.

JDSU said an industry inventory correction would lead to a decline in sales quarter over quarter, missing analysts’ estimates. But the sense today is that in a rough patch for optical, JDSU is actually holding up better than some. (Note Oplink’s (OPLK) 10% decline when it announced earnings on Tuesday.)

For example, Nathan Johnson with Pacific Crest Securities thinks the Q4 outlook suggested the company’s optical business can outperform the broader fiber-optic component market over the next several years, by consolidating the industry.

“While JDSU providing an outlook for a sequential decline of 2% to 4% in its optical business would not normally be a reason for celebration, the expected decline is better than the majority of JDSU’s optical peers are likely to experience,” writes Johnson.

“And we think it is better than many on the Street had come to expect.” Specifically, the whisper number was for a 7% decline, he writes.

Johnson reiterated an Outperform rating on the shares and increases his price target to $28 from $27.

Mark Sue of RBC Capital Markets is less enthusiastic, but he does accentuate some of the positives in the report.

Sue, who has a Sector Perform rating and a $23 price target on JDSU, remarks that “lead times are still contracting” for optical component orders, which makes him think it’s too early to get into JDSU shares.

However, the “core business” is still intact, notes Sue, despite the miss on Q2 numbers, hence the positive reaction in the shares. Some of the best-performing products, including the “Tunable XFP,” and the “Super Transport Blade,” may “help to offset weakness in other areas.”

Citigroup’s Kevin Dennean, who has a Buy rating on JDSU, today raised his price target to $25 from $24.

The company’s Q4 forecast, “was much better than feared heading into the print, and shows the benefits of diversification,” writes Dennean. “We believe there are still better days ahead for JDSU.”

Dennean raised his full-year 2012 EPS estimate to $1.08 from $1, while cutting this year’s number to 94 cents from 96 cents.

He sees upside from better gross margins in the company’s test and measurement business, and, as Sue suggests, from new products in optical components.

As for the rest of the industry, Dennean has a Hold rating on Finisar (FNSR), for whom he sees “significant risk to consensus [estimates for] +4.5% July revenue growth.” Finisar is “unlikely to see 20 times next twelve months’ P/E again this cycle, limiting upside.”

Article courtesy of Tech Trader Daily

Shares of First Solar (FSLR) continue to trade down this morning following an 8%-or-so drop last night after a Q1 report that beat estimates but saw the push-out of a project in Q2 and some cautious comments about solar energy subsidy regulation in Europe.

First Solar shares are down $8.66, or 6.4%, at $126.

None other than hedge fund titan Jim Chanos was on CNBC yesterday afternoon talking down the stock, predicting the price could drop to “the mid double-digits.” Note that Chanos’s remarks came in the context of his warning to get the heck out of China, where he thinks the growth path of the economy is unsustainable.

There’s a real easy part of the story: Insiders are selling lots and lots of stock over the past year, and insiders are leaving the company. That’s never a good sign. Whether you should be short, we have some issues with some of their accounting, we have some issue with some of their subsidized markets. And quite frankly, solar, still, is at a point where it does not compete with natural gas. we cannot rely on wind and solar for base load. We’re still looking for the magic bullet for solar and wind. I think the stock certainly could earn a lot less than the $9 run-rate the bulls are looking at.

(See the video below.)

Eric Rosenbaum of TheStreet.com today offers some thoughts on what he says are Chanos’s repeat appearances on CNBC with bad things to say about FSLR.

I see three downgrades this morning — I missed one earlier, from Credit Suisse — and one upgrade in the Street’s initial assessment, but also a deep divide between those who don’t like how much emphasis has been put on the latter half of the year to make the $9 profit mark, and those who see plenty of levers for First Solar to pull:

Bullish!

Mark Bachman, Auriga Securities: Raised his rating on the shares to Buy from Hold, with a $160 price target. “First Solar modules remain in high demand given the combination of low price and high energy yield,” writes Bachman. Bachman observes that while subsidy reductions create uncertainty, as long as investors can obtain debt financing and as long as First Solar’s modules offer investment returns that are “above project hurdles,” then there will actually be a “dramatic increase” in solar investment as projects rush to get going before the next subsidy adjustment. First Solar has the ability to increase project installations in the U.S., and to get into new Asian markets. “We also recognize management’s historical accuracy of forecasting both sales and profitability, thus the reiteration of 2011 guidance speaks volumes to us.”

Robert Stone, Cowen & Co.: Reiterates an Outperform rating. The project push-out woes, the hand-wringing over Europe, and the back-end-loaded year outlook make for a buying opportunity in the stock, he thinks, as this is just a “pause” for the company.

Ramesh Misra, Brigantine Advisors: Reiterates a Buy rating and a $170 target. Today is a buying opportunity, as the North American utility-scale projects provide a buffer to European troubles. The projects push-outs and the tariff issues were “not entirely unanticipated,” he writes. “While any revenue push-out [from the company’s Agua Caliente project] is a negative development, we are not overly concerned about this. The company’s EPC business will, almost by definition, tend to be lumpy based on the timing of revenue recognition.” Misra also offers that any rise in the Chinese renminbi could have an adverse impact on Chinese competitors to First Solar.

John Hardy, Gleacher & Co.: Reiterates a Buy rating and a $165 price target. He’s keeping his 2011 estimate of $3.8 billion in revenue intact, while trimming his EPS estimate to $9.66 from $9.70. “Stock and sector are likely to remain under pressure until Italy is sorted out and poly module pricing begins to solidify, but we continue to view FSLR as an outperformed given project flexibility in the U.S.

Mark Wienkes, Goldman Sachs: Reiterates a Buy rating and a $190 price target, saying that he likes “the risk-reward in the stock, particularly given increased strategic interest in solar companies (Total, GE, Hanwha), cost cuts are tracking on plan and are allowing for constructive ASP declines, larger markets, and fewer variable competitors, and 2011 production is allocated, with the pipeline buffer offering a profitable source of demand in both the second half of 2011 and 2012 should European markets remain soft.”

Bearish!

Ben Pang, Caris & Co.: Cut his rating on the stock to Average from Above Average and cut his price target to $139 from $172. “We think there is much higher risk to estimates due to growing uncertainty regarding renewable energy programs in Europe.” With Europe accounting for 70% of shipments, by his estimate (I’m assuming he means industry shipments), Pang sees increasing political gridlock in Europe as being not fully compensated for by First Solar’s “buffer” in North America. Pang cut his full-year estimates to $3.74 billion in revenue and $9.38 in EPS from a prior $3.79 billion and $9.43.

Dan Ries, Collins Stewart: Cut his rating to Neutral from Buy, with a $144 price target from $180, and cut his 2011 estimates to $3.75 billion and $9.36 per share in earnings from a prior $3.79 billion and $9.60 per share. “Given that the Department of Energy process [which is part of the Agua Caliente ramp-up] is an unknown to investors, we expects First Solar’s P/E multiple to contract while the risk of additional delays is present,” writes Ries. He cut his own P/E to 12 times from 15 times. “We will reconsider our rating if the stock approaches $100 or if we get greater clarity on the construction schedule for its large systems backlog.”

Satya Kumar, Credit Suisse: Cut his rating to Neutral from Buy and cut his price target to $115 from $137. “Our view has been that the stock is not interesting until it is closer to the $100 to $125 range.” Kumar’s sum-of-the-parts valuation of the stock assumes $90 of value for the panel business; $11 for the system business; and $14 worth of value for the cash on the balance sheet and “management premium.”

Gordon Johnson, Axiom Capital: Reiterates a Sell rating. “First Solar’s guidance implies an acute recovery in the second half. We believe this year will be defined by multiple estimate revisions for First Solar.” Johnson thinks First Solar is implying it can double or triple the build-out rate of the Agua Caliente project to meet the $9.50 earnings target. That would imply, he argues, 50 megawatts per month for the project, when project terms as agreed to were for just 20 megawatts per month. “While this is admittedly possible … we believe there has been a fundamental change in the story,” given the implied cut to Q2 outlook, a lower outlook on module sales for Q2, which he thinks implies a build-up of inventory; and an average cost for modules that is flat, year over year, implying “the business of selling modules is becoming less profitable,” he believes.

Weston Twigg, Pacific Crest: Reiterates a Sector Perform rating. Twigg sees a “ramp-up” of the utility-scale solar business as a buffer for First Solar in the second half of the year against lower module prices caused by competing silicon products. Twigg is concerned, however, by the recent departure of Bruce Sohn, who was the company’s “manufacturing guru,” in his view. While there’s upside potential for $182 per share, he writes that he has “little conviction” in the stock hitting that.

Article courtesy of Tech Trader Daily

Shares of both Research in Motion (RIMM) and Motorola Mobility (MMI) were on the move today, the former  down more than 13% on its disappointing first quarter guidance, the latter up nearly 12% on its earnings report.

Here’s what analysts are saying about RIMM:

Gleacher & Co. analyst Stephen Patel downgraded stock from Buy to Neutral and lowered his target price to $56: “International growth (up 94% y/y) helped overshadow a weak U.S (down 9% y/y) in FY11, but with RIMM pointing to slower sales in Latin America, we are more concerned that international will no longer be able to compensate for softness in North America. Weakness in Latin America could be an early sign that competitor inroads will not be confined to the U.S. market. New products later than expected with stale products putting RIMM in a deeper hole. Certain new products will launch in late FY2Q, 1-2 months later than our expectation for June-July launches. We estimate that 1/4 to 1/3 of Blackberry subscribers in the U.S. who came up for contract renewals last quarter switched to other platforms, leading to an estimated net ~1mil subscriber losses in the U.S. North American subscriber losses will likely continue as we await new products, and we are concerned that each passing month creates a higher bar for new Blackberry products and lowers the odds of RIMM being able to stabilize U.S. share. We still see NOK’s transition as a large opportunity for RIMM once compelling new products launch. However, with both currently competing on older products, RIMM’s May guidance does not yet provide evidence of share gain vs. Nokia”

Caris & Co. analyst Robert Cihra reiterated a 2* Above Average rating and $70 price target on the stock:  “Mostly a product cycling dynamic directionally still in line with our model, we only end up shaving 1c off our FY12 EPS estimate to $6.70, but this does keep us well short of RIMM’s more aggressive $7.50 guide, which management maintained. We think virtually across-the-board BlackBerry refreshes starting this summer (e.g., Bold Touch, Torch 2 and multiple new Curves) set up a big 2H rebound, though with an even heightened RISK profile in terms of new product longevity. Specifically, we’d continue to worry that from a platform standpoint, while RIMM’s new Playbook tablet intro’s its powerful new multitasking QNX OS, RIMM is not planning to launch QNX-based “super-phones” (e.g., dual-core) until early CY12, which makes us question how excited users/carriers may be for this year’s evolutionary OS 6.1 vs. waiting for the complete (and architecturally overdue) QNX-scaled re-write. This said…we see under-valued potential in BlackBerry’s ability to keep carving out a unique lower-cost SKU/value-added hardware+software+ service “niche” as smartphones effectively take over share of the >1.6B unit cell phone market, with our estimate RIMM plus Apple still just COMBINE at 8%-9% of all cell phones in CY11E.”

BGC Partners analyst Colin Gillis reiterated a Sell rating and $45 price target on the stock: “We are not changing our SELL rating and are concerned on future downward revisions. That said– it is worth pointing out that the market the company serves is that rare combination of being large and fast growing. We keep an open mind to the fact that there could be traction with new products in the future but we expect that Playbook shipments may be closer to our 2M estimate than the 5-6M range. Until we start to see positive data points there is no change to our SELL rating and $45 target. RIMM has $2.7B in cash ($5.15 / share) and no long term debt as of February 26, 2011. The company generated $1B in cash from operations in Q411.”

Sterne, Agee & Leach analyst Shaw Wu maintained a Neutral rating and and lowered his price target by $5 to $55:  “While we understand and appreciate that RIMM is making a big effort to turn itself around in closing the gap against Android and iPhone by rolling out a new generation of BlackBerries, we continue to believe the key risk is that gross and operating margins could come under pressure as we have seen in the past when it rolled out new models. The issues at hand are: (1) BOM (build-of-materials) costs go up as touchscreens require much more expensive displays and components including semiconductors and sensors and (2) royalty payments increase with the move to 2G -> 3G -> 4G networks where RIMM has a relatively weak patent portfolio. Ironically, we believe it may be smarter for RIMM to stagger the roll-out to avoid maximum dilution at once.”

Raymond James analyst Steven Li maintained an Outperform rating but lowered his target price from $77 to $71: “We already thought having QNX BlackBerries only arriving in 2012 (and no game changing products in between) was just asking for trouble with iPhone and Android gathering ever more momentum. Still, we were surprised with this lowering of guidance, particularly given that RIM’s F1Q12E guidance was barely one month old. This further clouds FY12E EPS visibility despite RIM maintaining its $7.50 EPS guidance. While management remains confident that upcoming “BlackBerry 7” phones expected this summer will drive significant volume, we have little visibility of that market acceptance, more so given Torch, which was also heavily touted last summer as an iPhone/Android comparable, failed to make significant inroads. We are staying the course mostly because QNX – which is PlayBook’s OS and also RIM’s future OS for smartphones – is finally something that is fast, fluid with amazing multi tasking that we think should compete well against iOS and Android. However, in the near-term, RIM’s shares could just tread water until we get some positive datapoints on either PlayBook or emerging markets or if BlackBerry 7 manages to surprise the skeptics next week at BlackBerry World. We also await the arrival of the Android App Player – which would allow Android apps to run on the PlayBook and other future QNX BlackBerries. The app players are expected to be available in the summer.”

Here’s what analysts are saying about MMI:

CL King analyst Lawrence Harris reiterated a Buy rating and $29 price target: “Motorola was able to offset the advent of the new Apple products at Verizon with increased sales in Latin America and China, as well as the introduction of the ATRIX 4G at AT&T. Verizon sold 2.2 million iPhones during the quarter, which was essentially in-line with but not above expectations. Motorola appears to be withstanding the impact of the iPhone better than other vendors such as Research in Motion, which pre-announced disappointing results last night.”

Canaccord Genuity analyst Michael Walkley reiterated a Hold rating on the stock but revised his price target upward to $25: “Motorola Mobility reported Q1/11 results with revenue and pro forma EPS slightly above our estimates, primarily driven by better than expected smartphone sales in China and Latin America. Management guided Q2/11 EPS of breakeven to $0.12 versus our $0.05 estimate. Our longer term concern remains increasing smartphone competition from larger Android-based OEM.”

Evercore Partners analyst Alkesh Shah reiterated an Overweight rating and $37 price target: “With $12 per share of cash, the stock trades at only 5-6x our FY2012 estimate of $2.14. As market share gains from new products (Bionic, ATRIX extensions, XOOM extensions), and broader international distribution occur over the next 4-6 quarters, we expect upside to earnings and its multiple. The largest risks are product launch execution, competition and potential commoditization due to multiple Android OS vendors.”

MKM Partners analyst Tero Kuittinen reiterated a Buy rating and $35 price target: ” We find relief in the company announcing its 20-23mn smartphone unit and 1.5-2mn tablet projections for 2011 after mounting concerns over the impact of the Bionic delay. We believe the upcoming Droid X2 launch can help offset at least half of the lost Bionic sales at Verizon during the spring quarter – we expect it to have a clear price advantage over Samsung Charge and LG Revolution during the quarter, as well as offering notably better power consumption. We believe the moderately priced Defy continues to have robust traction in international markets during the spring quarter.  We expect the Asian and European expansions to have a possible impact on earnings during the second half of the year. However, we believe it is crucially important for the company to grab a healthy chunk of Symbian market share that may be carved up by Nokia’s rivals during the summer and winter. Atrix is arriving at what we view as a great time to exploit Nokia’s high-end problems in Latin America, Asia and Europe. We anticipate that European LTE launches of the summer are going to be another interesting opening for Motorola.”

Article courtesy of Tech Trader Daily