Posted on 27 April 2011
Tags: barton-crockett, below-the-pre, estimates-below, global, internet, liberty-capital, michael reinstein, mike reinstein, music-streaming, play-on-sirius, production-cuts, radio, reinstein, StartUps, stock
Shares of Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) were off a penny in recent afternoon trading after a downgrade from Lazard Capital.
Analyst Barton Crockett downgraded the stock from Buy to Neutral, given that it is bumping up against his $2 price target. He also noted that while the company’s growth looks healthy, it’s not an unknown story, and it’s already reflected in the stock price.
“A key upside argument from here is rate hikes, with a merger rate hike restriction likely to end in 2Q11,” he wrote. “While Sirius XM’s subs are loyal and engaged and we believe will pay more, we also believe that Sirius XM is likely to act conservatively, in recognition of a still tepid consumer environment. A profusion of new online music streaming services from Internet companies, startups, and IPO candidates also augurs for some pricing caution. We are not willing to assume big upside to our long-term 3% rate hike assumption.”
Crockett also said that with production cuts and the plodding pace of the economic recover, there likely won’t be a bigger car sales recovery (many new cars come with limited subscriptions to Sirius). For the first quarter, which Sirius reports next Tuesday, he is forecasting revenue and adjusted EBIDTA estimates below consensus, as he sees “an end to Sirius’s streak of steadily trouncing and raising guidance.”
He concluded that a better play on Sirius can be found at Liberty Capital: “Our DCF of surging free cash flow is consistent with the current stock price, which is an adj. EV (incl NOLs) of 18.1x 2011E adj. EBITDA. For Sirius exposure, we see a better value at Liberty Capital, which owns 40% of Sirius XM, and trades a third below the pre-tax value of its parts. We see likely scenarios for LCAPA to exit these stakes tax-free.”
Article courtesy of Tech Trader Daily
Posted on 25 April 2011
Tags: consensus, early-morning, global, michael reinstein, morning, now-classified, now-forecasting, radio, retailer, the-retailer
Shares of RadioShack (RSH) were taking a hit this morning after the retailer reported uninspiring earnings.
RadioShack said it earned $35.1 million, or 33 cents a share, in its first quarter, down from 39 cents a share, in the year-ago period. The most-recent quarter included a charge of 2 cents a share for the early extinguishment of debt; excluding that, EPS was in line with analysts’ forecasts of 35 cents a share. Sales rose 2.1% to $1.06 billion, but came in short of the consensus $1.07 billion. Same-store sales fell 0.6%.
Gross margin shrank to 44.8% from 47.2%, and RadioShack also lowered the high end of its full-year EPS guidance by a dime, now forecasting $1.60 to $1.80.
RadioShack has been facing increasing competition in its wireless division (now classified as its mobility segment), and is working to repair its relationship with T-Mobile.
In early morning trading, RadioShack was recently down 3.5%, to $15.27.
Article courtesy of Tech Trader Daily
Posted on 31 March 2011
Tags: events, Feature, getting-it-done, global, meetings, michael reinstein, network, phone, power, qualcomm, radio, stated-on-march, traditional, windows, windows-phone
Sanford Bernstein’s Stacy Rasgon today reports on a meeting with Qualcomm’s (QCOM) chief financial officer Bill Keitel and other senior management at the company’s San Diego headquarters.
Rasgon reiterates an Outperform rating on the stock and a $65 price target. The company wouldn’t provide any further detail as regards Japan’s affects on the business beyond what Qualcomm stated on March 16th., when the company said chain, “we do not foresee any significant impact in our ability to supply product to our customers due to the events in Japan.”
The discussion was instead about opportunities. Qualcomm is “quite bullish” about getting into the traditional computing market since Microsoft (MSFT) and ARM Holdings (ARMH) have talked about taking ARM-based chips into PCs.
Mr. Keitel suggested that, over time, the company hopes to see fewer laptops and more tablet devices as ubiquitous wireless connectivity drivers an increase toward mobility, and believes that over time the handheld device will become the primary computing device (as he said in the meetings, “Mobile is going computing, and computing is going mobile.” To this end, they have made significant investments to port high level operating systems (e.g. Windows) to their chips for years, and believes that over time the Windows Phone 7 and mainstream Windows ecosystems will have to merge (putting them in a good position to, over time, move beyond phones).
The impending Atheros acquisition still has no closing date, but management said they are “hopefully close to getting it done.”
Qualcomm believes it can take some share from Nvidia (NVDA) in tablets based on Google’s (GOOG) “Android” operating system, with Rasgon writing that despite Nvidia’s early lead, “Qualcomm suggested that new releases [of Android] should be much more incremental than Honeycomb (which represented a more profound shift)., with share gain likely on such subsequent releases as “feature jump” gets smaller. The company has a strong pipeline of designs in the second half as a result.”
And Rasgon writes that the company is “quite pleased ” with how the rollout of 4G wireless devices is going. There have been “power issues” with some 4G phones, such as HTC’s “Thunderbolt,” but those are not just the radio chip, they also stem from the power-hungry screens and the network “immaturity,” Rasgon quotes Qualcomm as saying. Some power issues will be resolved as the company ships 28-nanometer parts.
Qualcomm shares are up 26 cents, or half a point, today at $54.77.
Article courtesy of Tech Trader Daily
Posted on 23 March 2011
Tags: contribution, current-stock, harrigan, howard-stern, internal, internal-target, million-or-more, morning, owed-additional, radio, reinstein, survival, uncertainty
Following a lawsuit yesterday by Howard Stern accusing Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) of not paying Stern millions in promised SIRI shares, Wunderlich Securities analyst Matthew Harrigan this morning cut his rating on Sirius to Hold from Buy, with a $1.65 price target, down from $2.
“SIRI’s current stock market valuation likely cannot accommodate the uncertainty engendered by the suit – even if it ends up being meritless,” writes Harrigan.
As Harrigan notes, Stern’s complaint says he was “largely responsible for the survival of Sirius, attracting millions of subscribers.”
The complaint says Stern is owed additional share-based compensation for each two million or more subscribers that were added above internal targets. In 2010, for example, an internal target was 12.1 million, notes Harrigan, but Sirius ended up with 8 million more than that.
Harrigan considers “most spectacular” the fact that Stern’s complaint alleges that subscribers picked up with the XM merger count as exceeding the internal goals. In fact, Stern contends his contribution was responsible for Sirius’s ability to merge with XM Radio.
SIRI shares this morning are down 6 cents, or 3%, at $1.65.
Article courtesy of Tech Trader Daily
Posted on 21 March 2011
Tags: apple, brian-white, cisco, cisco-systems, clear-positive, integrate-its, juniper, mike reinstein, network-equipment, networks, radio, reinstein, some-downside, white
Brian White of Ticonderoga Securities, who follows Apple (AAPL), writes that today’s announcement by AT&T (T) that it intends to purchase Deutsche Telekom’s (DT) T-Mobile USA for $39 billion is a “clear positive for Apple” as it gives the company access to T-Mobile’s 34 million subscribers for its iPhone, on top of AT&T’s 96 million subs.
The deal is also probably positive for network equipment suppliers Cisco Systems (CSCO), Juniper Networks (JNPR), and for “certain parts of Alcatel-Lucent’s (ALU) portfolio.” White maintains a Buy recommendation on shares of Cisco and Juniper, but doesn’t formally rate ALU stock.
AT&T expects to spend $7 billion over three years on to integrate its network with T-Mobile’s, White notes. Ericsson (ERIC) may see some downside as a current supplier of the radio-access network portion of AT&T’s 4G, or LTE, network, White writes.
Apple shares are currently up $8.09, or 2.5%, at $338.76; Cisco shares are up 35 cents, or 2%, at $17.49; Juniper stock is up 22 cents, or half a percent, at $40.48; Alcatel shares are up 18 cents, almost 4%, at $5.25; and Ericsson stock is up 2 cents at $12.17.
Article courtesy of Tech Trader Daily
Posted on 22 February 2011
Tags: after-the-bell, current, dell, global, radio, reinstein, rsh, shares, weak-consumer
Coming up next, after the bell, earnings reports from Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and RadioShack (RSH).
For its fiscal Q1 ending in January, HP is expected to earning $1.29 per share on revenue of $32.96 billion. Analysts are forecasting $32.6 billion for the fiscal Q2, and earnings per share of $1.25.
ISI Group analyst Abhey Lamba writes that strength in HP’s enterprise business likely offset the company’s exposure to weak consumer buying trends. The company may also have seen a benefit from favorable pricing on components (as Dell (DELL) did when it announced results last week), and from strength in pricing for its x86-based servers. Lamba reiterated a Buy rating and a $54 price target on the shares.
Radio Shack may report EPS of 53 cents on revenue of $1.37 billion in its Q4 ended in December, according to consensus. For the current Q1, the Street is looking for $1.07 billion in revenue and 38 cents EPS.
HP shares are down 69 cents, or 1.4%, at $47.98. RadioShack shares are off 37 cents, or 2.4%, at $15.33.

Article courtesy of Tech Trader Daily
Posted on 15 February 2011
Tags: james, james-goss, mike reinstein, more-or-less, morning, outperform, radio, reinstein, research, siri, sirius, tad-below, the-year, year
Barrington Research analyst James Goss today reiterated an Outperform rating on shares of Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) following Q4 results this morning that were just a tad below expectations this morning. The company offered a forecast for the year that was more or less in line with expectations.
But in a [...]

Article courtesy of BARRONS.com: Tech Trader Daily
Posted on 15 February 2011
Tags: 736-million, average, forecast-the-year, michael reinstein, morning, radio, siri, sirius, slightly-missed, the-average, the-year, year-over
Shares of Sirius XM Radio (SIRI) are down 14 cents, or almost 8%, at $1.69, after the company this morning reported revenue that slightly missed consensus estimates and forecast the year slightly below expectations.
Q4 revenue was up 9%, year over year, at $736 million, just shy of the average $739.9 [...]

Article courtesy of BARRONS.com: Tech Trader Daily
Posted on 24 January 2011
Tags: ceo, early-trading, michael reinstein, mike reinstein, radio, radio-shack, rsh, well-below, will-retire
Shares of Radio Shack (RSH) are down $1.61, or 9%, at $16 in early trading after the company announced preliminary earnings for the Q4 ending in December that were well below analysts’ forecasts, and said its CEO would retire.
Julian Day, 57, will retire in May, and will be replaced by [...]

Article courtesy of BARRONS.com: Tech Trader Daily
Posted on 20 December 2010
Tags: 147-through, aapl, apple, christmas, morning, radio, radio-shack, reinstein, rsh, stores, wmt
Engadget this morning reports Wal-Mart Stores’s (WMT) Sam’s Club operation has undercut Radio Shack (RSH) by $2, offering Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone 4 in 16-gigabyte models for $147 through Christmas day, with a 2-year AT&T (T) contract.

Article courtesy of BARRONS.com: Tech Trader Daily