Shares of Research in Motion (RIMM) are down 35 cents, or 0.8%, at $43.17 this morning after Wunderlich Securities analyst Matthew Robison cut his rating on the stock to Hold from Buy, and cut his price target to $46 from $76, writing that he expects the company to “churn down to hard core.”
What does that mean? Well, the company is not going to “participate in the mainstream of smartphone industry growth,” he writes, and it will see churn take hold until there is no longer any growth for the company.
There’s a kind of two-sided problem, according to Robison: BlackBerry users who really need top-tier enterprise security — the BlackBerry Enterprise Server — are only about a third of the total BlackBerry users, because, “corporations increasingly distinguish between users needing mobile access to data that must be seriously defended and users that can be allowed limited network access via personally liable devices.”
And as a result, RIM is left to try and market everything it’s got other than top-tier security, which Robison sees as a tough slog for the company with poor results thus far:
For the two-thirds of the RIM service subscribers that may not have critical security needs, RIM must go to market with product features and an applications ecosystem that, in terms of innovation rate, have been disadvantaged by the extra effort required to support the security and control mandate of the core BES user base.
New BlackBerry products in late summer (using OS 7) will sell well among the faithful, Robison writes, but “for new smartphone customers in the U.S. the BlackBerry brand continues to fade.” Robison expects RIM management will at some point sharply revise downward the $7.50 per share in earnings for this year that it has continued to insist on, given that it seems all pegged to those BlackBerry 7 phones.
Robison expects competition to be intense in overseas markets from budget phones based on Google’s (GOOG) Android software, not to mention marked-down Nokia (NOK) units. The arrival of technologies such as the “QNX” OS on BlackBerry will probably be too little, too late.
Robison has been quite positive in general regarding the PlayBook tablet computer, and writes that he still likes it, both in user experience and the strategy of linking it to the BlackBerry. However, it will sell too few units to offset the drop in BlackBerry sales. He models 2.7 million units of PlayBook this fiscal year, down from a prior 3.9 million unit estimate , and perhaps 3 million next year.
“The fact that the PlayBook works so well (this perspective is shared by our retail contacts) yet does not seem to sustain initial sales momentum highlights the shift in consumer orientation toward iOS and Android,” writes Robison.
In sum, Robison expects churn to take its toll on the company, and after 2013, there will no longer be any growth. He forecasts revenue in that year rising just 7%, down from perhaps 11% this fiscal year.
Interestingly, Robison concludes, “The biggest threat to RIM is obsolescence of the BlackBerry Network,” which remains, “the gold standard” in security. Robison mentions Intel’s (INTC) purchase of McAfee as an attempt to create broader networks with similar embedded security, but for the moment, the top-tier of enterprise security will stick with RIM.
The network could be useful in “cloud” computing, and therefore valuable to an acquirer, he writes, however, routing and switching technologies such as deep packet inspection, are already eroding the value of RIM’s network.
Article courtesy of Tech Trader Daily

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