Shares of solar energy technology providers are trading mixed today following a Reuters‘s report this morning that Italian regulators decided not to impose any suspension of subsidies, or feed-in-tariff, FiT, for the technology once a threshold of installations is reached.
The stocks are clearly struggling for direction, trading quite mixed in a market that’s up strongly today. Sunpower (SPWRA), for example, is down 12 cents at $17.12, while First Solar (FSLR) is up 15 cents at $145.79.
To judge from the various analyst reports today, the Street is having a hard time even agreeing on what was resolved so far in Italy, with some people saying a “cap” was imposed on subsidies, others saying it was not, and still others saying there wasn’t any cap, ever, to begin with.
Solar analyst Jeff Bencik with Kaufman Brothers tells me by phone this afternoon that his impression is nothing has been resolved for sure.
“If it’s anything like Spain, in 2008, and Germany, any number of times, you are just going to get this back and forth and nothing is decided for a very long time,” says Bencik.
“People are construing it as a cap, but I don’t think it ever was,” says Bencik, referring to the threshold of 8 gigawatts of solar installations in Italy that have served as a benchmark around which the debate has revolved.
“At the time they put it, it wasn’t a cap, it was a “goal.” There could at some point be a “soft cap” of sorts implemented, if say, they reached 7 gigawatts of installations and then cut the tariff somewhat, and then, when they reached 8 gigawatts, cut it some more. in reality, though, cap is the wrong word for that. It’s really a market-based incentive program.”
Bencik, who is Neutral on shares of FSLR and SPWRA, thinks that with a “back-end loaded” earnings picture for those companies, the fundamentals of their business may come to matter more than the regulatory environment sometime later this year. In the meantime, he has a Buy recommendation on LDK Solar (LDK), the Chinese producer, which has a more even flow of earnings over the year, and which he sees as deeply undervalued, trading at just six times forward earnings.
Nevertheless, there remains a wide disparity of views on the matter:
Mark Bachman, Auriga Securities: “No cap in Italy. A news report on the website Il Messaggero said the Economic Minister and Environment Minister agreed this morning to not institute a cap at 8GW. We expect some form of normalcy to return to solar shares in the coming days. In general, this means we should expect a bid to solar as prices come back toward where we started last Friday. We do not believe this is the end of macro-led drama for solar shares as further European incentive schemes are more likely to be reduced in order to better reflect a balance between incentive and investment. However, with Germany settled and Italy well on its way, the uncertainty surrounding incentives is slowly whiling away. Other noise may crop up, but now that a discussion of a cap in Germany and Italy is out of the way, all players can concentrate on the business of installing solar, and any further news of incentive reductions will likely be small potatoes.”
Gordon Johnson, Axiom Capital: Today, the Italian govt passed legislation that will: provide an annual limit of total PV power to be incentivized as part of a new FiT scheme to be effective June 1st, 2011, or a ’11 cap which will apply to out years [...] end the current FiT scheme May 31st, 2011, with the definition of new tariffs based on both the reduction in PV systems costs & a comparison to similar FiT levels from EU member states [...] implementation, immediately, of a 1MW cap for ground‐based PV plants on agricultural land [...] only 10% of a farmer’s land can be used for the installation of a ground‐based PV plant (the plants cannot be placed within 2 kilometers of each other) [...] modules for plants must have a 10‐year warranty; and new buildings must have renewable energy generation capacity of 10kW per 8,600 square feet of surface in ‘11. we strongly recommend [...] initiating short positions in this space ahead of the market better understanding the implications of this action by the Italian govt.”
Vishal Shah, Barclays Capital: “Overall, we consider the outcome to be worse than expectations as it increases uncertainty with respect to the second half of 2011 fundamentals and likely increases risk to financing of several ongoing projects. We expect this policy to result in a significant slowdown in the Italian market in Q2 until pricing expectations are reset for a potential 30% to 50% FiT cut in the second half of 2011.”
Terence Geoghan, Brigantine Advisors: “We believe that much of the sellside are focusing on the wrong end of stick; the fact that FiT would be reduced in Germany/ Italy in 2011 is well known already. The bigger deal is that Italy did not impose a cap on the FiT at 8GW, potentially paving the way for Italy becoming the largest solar market this year. Finally, lost in all the to & fro is the fact that Europe is making significant progress towards its goal of getting 20% of its power from renewable sources by 2020.” Geoghan sees Sunpower and First Solar as being well-positioned in the utility-scale market, and recommends buying the shares on the recent pullback. As for Suntech Power Holdings (STP) will get some “tailwinds” from Italy and “could even provide some upside,” but he thinks Chinese producers will “scramble” this year for business in Italy, and he maintains a Hold rating on STP.
Dan Ries, Collins Stewart: Today’s developments “remove the big risk of a halt to the Italian solar demand, but is by no means a free lunch. Our point is that without the FIT being known for June can affect projects as early as March or April. That is within the normal lead time for module sales agreements. We suspect a lot of calls are being made from module buyers to module producers (in China) saying, ‘hey, I am not sure I need all those modules I ordered for 2Q11 and I am sure I will need them at a lower price.’ The Italian policy change set to occur in June will have implications for module sales in the very near-term.”

Article courtesy of Tech Trader Daily