Shares of Research In Motion (RIMM) are down $6.84, or almost 11%, at $57.25, in early trading continuing the after-hours dropped they experienced last night following the company’s announcement of fiscal Q4 revenue that was a tad light and a Q1 view that missed estimates.
This morning the stock gets no less than four downgrades, from Buy to Neutral at Merrill Lynch, from Neutral to Underperform at RW Baird and Deutsche Bank, and from Buy to “Above Average” at Caris & Co.
This is period of “transition,” the company said, and today, there are those who’ll give the company the benefit of the doubt it can transition fine, and some who won’t.
Bullish!
Mike Abramsky, RBC Capital: Reiterates a Buy recommendation and a $90 price target, writing that RIM’s stock is still a top pick. “The Q1 miss likely sustains near-term investor concerns over intensifying competition – but we interpret it transitional,” writes Abramsky. “Valuation may remain volatile near-term, however we foresee additional upside as pending launches and Q1 results/outlook help restore confidence in RIM’s competitive advantages and in achievement of their fiscal 2012. outlook. Execution remains a risk to our view.”
Stephen Patel, Gleacher & Co.: Reiterates a Buy rating, while cutting his price target to $72 from $80, but he’s sticking with the thesis RIM will be a beneficiary of Nokia’s (NOK) stumble in the global smartphone market. Sell-through in Q4 was up 18% from Q3, he notes, way above the sell-in of just 5%, “and we believe May quarter-over-quarter sell-through will also be better than sell-in guidance of units down 6% at the midpoint.” Patel has raised this year’s EPS estimate to $7.52 from $7.40, giving management the benefit of the doubt.
Tavis McCourt, Morgan Keegan: Maintains an Outperform rating, while cutting his price target to $91 from $96, and he also is sticking with his 2012 EPS estimate of $7.09, and initiates an $8-per-share estimate for 2013. He thinks there will, indeed, be a snap-back after the current quarter flushes some BlackBerry inventory from the channel: “May will almost certainly be artificially low, as they expect to ship about 14 million BlackBerries, and sell through will likely far exceed this. Because of this we would expect a strong snap-back in BlackBerry unit sales in the August quarter, on top of sequential tablet growth.” And International is still the key: “The “non-US” portion of revenue grew 77%, year over year, and shows little sign of slowing,” writes McCourt. “Our thesis on RIM is that its network advantages are not easily replicable by other vendors and give it substantial advantages outside of the US, but are not as relevant in the US market. Even if OS 6.1 and PlayBook do not reinvigorate BlackBerry growth in the US, RIM will likely continue to grow for many years to come just based on its advantages outside the US, in our opinion.”
Bearish!
Robert Cihra, Caris & Co.: Cut his rating from Buy to “Above Average,” and cut his price target from $75 to $70, writing that the projection of $7.50 or better per share in earnings throws a lot of risk onto the latter three quarters of the year, which he finds hard to believe: he’s cut his 2012 EPS estimate to $6.71 from a prior $7.01. “RISK is RIMM’s now guiding a big ramp starting FQ2, partially driven by smartphone product roadmap/cycling actually not far off our existing expectation BUT we fear now banking on VERY strong uptake of Playbook tablets. We see key BlackBerry refreshes starting this summer […] but from a platform standpoint, while Playbook will intro the powerful new multitasking QNX OS, RIMM’s not planning to launch QNX-based “super-phones” (e.g., dual-core) until early calendar 2012, which makes us question how excited users/carriers may be for this year’s evolutionary OS 6.1 vs. waiting for the complete (and architecturally overdue) QNX-scaled re-write.”
Brian Modoff, Deutsche Bank: Cut his rating to Hold from Sell, and cut his price target to $50 from $60. He cut his estimate for this year $6.76 per share in earnings from a prior $7.67. ”We think this quarter was just a taste of what lies in store for the company. The company is feeling the growth of Android shipments which are replacing Blackberries in all of the company’s markets. In the core enterprise base, a growing number of corporates are opening their e-mail systems to iOS and Android. Emerging markets, which have driven RIM’s growth over the last two years, appear to be slowing as well. We think this trend will only get worse as Android smartphones get dramatically cheaper.” He’s lost faith in the PlayBook, too, it would seem: “While RIM has grasped some of the important conceptual elements of a modern OS, it now appears that these lessons have not taken root. Instead of offering a single coherent OS strategy, they are fragmenting their own platform by offering multiple elements.” And he thinks it’s no longer acceptable for Mike Lazaridis and James Balsillie to be splitting the CEO spot: “In all our years covering stocks, we cannot think of a situation where this ended well.”
Simona Jankowski, Goldman Sachs: Reiterates a Sell rating, while cutting her price target to $57 from $63. Jankowski is sticking with her already low EPS estimate for this year of $5.77. The first part of her RIM thesis, that the company would lose market share, has played out, she writes. The Q1 forecast “supports the second part of our thesis, namely that Street estimates will decline significantly as a result of lower than expected ASPs and margins.” Given a move to emerging markets and to consumers from businesses, the company is destined to see continued margin pressure, Jankowski argues, with an “aging product portfolio” not helping things.
Ittai Kidron: Maintains a “Perform” rating, with no price target. He cut his 2012 EPS estimate to $6.80 from $7.20, even though he actually raised his revenue estimate slightly to $24.81 billion. The company’s aging smartphone portfolio, and the initial pressure from low gross profit margin on the PlayBook make the company’s year forecast a “stretch,” he believes. ” Despite RIM’s optimism, our revised PlayBook estimates remain below consensus. We also don’t think RIM can scale down its strategic growth investments limiting operating leverage. Bottom line, we see a challenging transition and aren’t buying RIM’s aggressive fiscal year 2012 outlook or its shares.”
Jennifer Fritzsche, Wells Fargo: Reiterates a Market Weight rating on the stock and a valuation range of $63 to $66. She cut her EPS estimate this year to $6.77 from a prior $7.14, on $24.7 billion in revenue, down from $25.4 billion before. “The company provided FY2012 EPS guidance of greater than $7.50, but we note that to hit guidance RIMM would have to report sharply improved H2 results. Our estimates are more conservative than guidance.”
Article courtesy of Tech Trader Daily