Tag Archive | "time"

Dell: Targets, Estimates Up, But Can They Maintain Margins?

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Shares of Dell (DELL) are up 67 cents, or 4%, at $16.57 this morning, following better-than-expected fiscal Q1 results last night and a reaffirmation of its year outlook.

(I would note that Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) shares continue to trade down this morning, following a raft of downgrades yesterday. The stock is currently off 67 cents, almost 2%, at $36.24.)

No upgrades so far this morning, that I can see, but estimates and price targets are going up all around, but there is still a substantial caution about whether Dell can maintain its operating profit margin, given that it was margin that allowed the company to beat earnings last night even as it missed revenue estimates:

Kevin Hunt, Auriga: Reiterates a Buy rating, and a $25 price target. Hunt raised his full-year EPS estimate to $1.86 from $1.65, leaving essentially unchanged his EPS estimate of $64.7 billion. The question is margin, he suggests, and what to believe: “Dell increased its full year operating income guidance to a range of 12-18% y/y growth from a prior view of 6-12%. While that is impressive growth, it is far short of the 74% y/y growth just posted by Dell in the first quarter, and implies a significant deceleration in margins as the year progresses, with negative profit growth later in the year, at a time when revenue is being guided upward.” Probably just being conservative, says Hunt, but it’s also possible PC pricing gets more “aggressive” this year, or component pricing rises. “So some caution does appear prudent.”

Ben Reitzes, Barclays Capital: Reiterates an Equal Weight rating on the shares, while raising his price target to $17 from $15. “We continue to believe Dell margins may have peaked,” he writes. Problem is, a wind-down of the corporate PC refresh cycle means Dell “will need to adjust pricing a bit to provide more balance,” given that revenue underwhelming in each segment in the quarter, with desktop revenue down 8% and notebook revenue of $4.7 billion slightly less than expected. Server and networking revenue of $1.97 billion was also light, as was storage revenue and software and peripherals. Services was a bright spot and it “seems like that business is on solid footing.” Reitzes raised his year EPS estimate to $1.90 from $1.70.

Brian Marshall, Gleacher & Co.: Reiterates a Neutral rating, while raising his price target to $16 from $15, though he’s not convinced Dell can maintain its operating margin improvement. “Management’s FY12 operating income guidance is for growth of 12-18% Y/Y. This implies an operating margin outlook of 7.0% at the midpoint of guidance (i.e., a material decline over the next three quarters) […] There must be a decelerating operating margin trajectory (i.e., a 220bp decline from the most recent quarter).” Marshall raised his year EPS estimate to $1.74 from $1.65 previously, on revenue of $63.5 billion, up slightly.

Shaw Wu, Sterne Agee: Reiterates a Neutral rating and a $15 price target, while raising his fiscal year ESP estimate to $2 from a prior $1.70. However, his concerns are not allayed: “we remain concerned with the company’s longer-term fundamental position and believe the company needs to take more aggressive steps to reinvent itself. In our view, the company faces formidable competitors Apple (AAPL), HP, Acer, Toshiba, and Lenovo in its core PC business, and HP, IBM (IBM), Cisco Systems (CSCO), and Oracle (ORCL) in the enterprise business.”

Richard Kugele, Needham & Co.: Reiterates a Hold rating, while raising his year estimate for EPS to $1.88, leaving his revenue more or less unchanged at $64.9 billion. “We believe that to warrant further appreciation in the stock, the street would need to: 1) suspend its negative view on tablets, 2) assume a near-term recovery in the consumer PC market, and 3) believe Dell will be able to maintain or expand margins even in the pending less favorable component environment (all of which we see as unlikely at this time).”

Keith Bachman, BMO Capital Markets: Reiterates a Market Perform rating, while raising his price target to $19 from $18. “Given weak stock price performance by HPQ, and strong stock performance by IBM (IBM), we believe that investors will consider and indeed put some new money to work in Dell,” writes Bachmn, though he’s not convinced there’s enough upside to raise his rating on the shares.

Article courtesy of Tech Trader Daily

Donald Trump Will Not Run For President

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The Don has announced the lure of the White House is not great enough to make him give up his biggest passion just yet (but watch out 2016).

After considerable deliberation and reflection, I have decided not to pursue the office of the Presidency. This decision does not come easily or without regret; especially when my potential candidacy continues to be validated by ranking at the top of the Republican contenders in polls across the country. I maintain the strong conviction that if I were to run, I would be able to win the primary and ultimately, the general election. I have spent the past several months unofficially campaigning and recognize that running for public office cannot be done half heartedly. Ultimately, however, business is my greatest passion and I am not ready to leave the private sector.

I want to personally thank the millions of Americans who have joined the various Trump grassroots movements and written me letters and e-mails encouraging me to run. My gratitude for your faith and trust in me could never be expressed properly in words. So, I make you this promise: that I will continue to voice my opinions loudly and help to shape our politician’s thoughts. My ability to bring important economic and foreign policy issues to the forefront of the national dialogue is perhaps my greatest asset and one of the most valuable services I can provide to this country. I will continue to push our President and the country’s policy makers to address the dire challenges arising from our unsustainable debt structure and increasing lack of global competitiveness. Issues, including getting tough on China and other countries that are methodically and systematically taking advantage of the United States, were seldom mentioned before I brought them to the forefront of the country’s conversation. They are now being debated vigorously. I will also continue to push for job creation, an initiative that should be this country’s top priority and something that I know a lot about. I will not shy away from expressing the opinions that so many of you share yet don’t have a medium through which to articulate.

I look forward to supporting the candidate who is the most qualified to help us tackle our country’s most important issues and am hopeful that, when this person emerges, he or she will have the courage to take on the challenges of the Office and be the agent of change that this country so desperately needs

Thank you and God Bless America!

Donald J. Trump

So many emotions, so many feelings, so many unanswered questions come to mind at this time. Chief among them being:

1) Who will Gary Busey throw his support to now, after his endorsement (and acronym/slogan/Buseyism: T(aking) R(edirection), U(nderstanding) M(assive) P(ower)) has been wasted?

2) WHO WILL TELL THE CHINESE, “Listen you motherfuckers, we’re going to tax you 25 percent“?!

Trump Not Running for President: ‘Decision Does Not Come Easily Or Without Regret’ [ABC]



Article courtesy of Dealbreaker

Dodd: “I’d Be The Last Person To Sit Here And Tell You We Wrote The Perfect Bill”

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“There were a lot of time constraints and emotions going on…but people who are trying to dismantle it are wasting their time.”– Senator Dodd on Dodd-Frank.



Article courtesy of Dealbreaker

Your Window Of Opportunity To Invest With A Commodities Trader/Event Promoter/Aspiring Reality TV Star May Soon Be Closed

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Tyrone L. Gilliams is the founder TL Gilliams, a “trading firm” located in a suburb of Philadelphia that promises investors returns of 5% a week. But he’s also so much more than that. He’s a hip-hop promoter. He’s a (n alleged) friend of P. Diddy. He’s an aspiring reality TV star who hired a team of videographers to follow him around. He’s a philanthropist- to the world. If you’d heard of Gilliams years earlier and liked what you saw, you could’ve become an investor as a way to get close to all that. Unfortunately, TLG may not be actively investing for much longer, as at least one client- David Parlin- has accused him of misappropriating funds for “trips to the Bahamas, outings to Miami nightclubs, shopping sprees at Saks Fifth Avenue and a Cherry Hill, NJ Mercedes Benz dealership” and of running a Ponzi scheme, filing suit against Gilliams on April 13. As recently as February, TLG had registered the “Black Fox Fund” (a planned “$20 million stock-focused fund”) and while it’s likely the vehicle will have to be put on hold, at least for the time being, take a gander at this phenomenal video Ty-Gill shot to promote his firm’s “Joy to the World Fest” and if you think he’s someone with whom you’d like to entrust your money, consider getting in touch.

Joy To The World Fest 2010 TL Gilliams, LLC by The Artist Warehouse from TIM FONTAINE on Vimeo.

Matthew Goldstein: A Fame-Seeking Philly Trader’s Rap Falls Flat [Reuters]



Article courtesy of Dealbreaker

Opening Bell: 05.10.11

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Paulson Plays the Lehman Bust (WSJ)
Mr. Paulson’s fund has been snatching up Lehman debt at steep discounts since the day the investment bank collapsed, betting prices would rise while panicked investors fled. Now, as Lehman’s estate prepares to wind down, Mr. Paulson’s fund could reap profits between $350 million and $726 million on the Lehman trades…Over two and a half years, Mr. Paulson’s fund, Paulson & Co., purchased more than $7 billion worth of Lehman bonds in about 1,800 transactions. The average cost of those trades was just 13 cents on the dollar, according to the Journal’s analysis.

PIMCO raises bet against U.S. government debt (Reuters)
PIMCO’s Bill Gross, the manager of the world’s largest bond fund, raised his bet against U.S. government-related debt in April to 4 percent from 3 percent, according to the company’s website on Monday.

Morgan Stanley Trading Gains Topped $100 Million on 10 Days (Bloomberg)
The firm’s trading division lost money on 3 days during the period, compared with 13 days in the fourth quarter, New York- based Morgan Stanley said in a filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

BofA to cut $850bn bad loan book in half (FT)
Bank of America plans to shrink its $850bn portfolio of troubled home loans by about half over the next three years as it seeks to quicken the pace with which it resolves problems related to the housing crisis and its disastrous purchase of Countrywide Financial. Terry Laughlin, who is spearheading BofA’s mortgage modification and foreclosure programmes, told the Financial Times he had been given leeway to act quickly to tackle the growing number of bad loans that threaten to overwhelm the bank’s overall performance and tarnish the reputation of Brian Moynihan, its chief executive.

Microsoft Said to Discuss Buying Internet-Call Provider Skype (Bloomberg)
A deal would value Skype at about $8.5 billion and may be announced as early as today, said one of the people, who asked not to be identified because the talks are private.

Alan Simpson Attacks AARP, Says Social Security Is ‘Not A Retirement Program’ (HuffPo)
At an event hosted by the Investment Company Institute, Simpson delighted the finance industry audience members by aiming a rude gesture at the leading lobby for senior citizens.

CME raises crude futures margins 4th time since Feb (Reuters)
Margins will climb by 25 percent as of the close of business on May 10, boosting the cost of holding positions for hedgers and speculators, a factor some traders said helped bring oil prices down by as much as 2 percent on Tuesday following a $5 a barrel spike a day earlier…The cumulative increase in margins on U.S. crude benchmark West Texas Intermediate CLc1 positions since February is 67 percent, from $3,750 to $6,250 per contract.

China Has Bigger-Than-Forecast Surplus on Record Exports (Bloomberg)
China reported a trade surplus that was more than three times larger than forecast in April as exports surged to a record, bolstering the U.S. case for faster yuan gains as officials from both nations meet for annual talks in Washington. The surplus widened to $11.4 billion and exceeded the forecasts of all 27 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Exports climbed 30 percent to $156 billion while import growth slowed to 22 percent, the customs bureau said today.

Euro wobbles, haunted by commodities and debt worries (Reuters)
The common currency, which hit a six-week low against the Japanese yen and a one-month low against the British pound, was also hobbled by fears of a commodities rout after oil prices fell in the wake of the CME Group’s hike in trading margins for U.S. crude futures.

BNP Paribas chairman to retire (FT)
Michel Pébereau, France’s most influential banker, is retiring as chairman of BNP Paribas, the domestic bank he helped transform over two decades.

Reports of Mortgage Fraud Reach Record Level (WSJ)
Reports of mortgage fraud, which have been increasing since the housing boom, rose to their highest level on record in 2010, Treasury Department figures showed. The Financial Crimes Enforcement Network, a Treasury agency, reported 70,472 “suspicious activity reports” related to suspected mortgage fraud, up from 67,507 in 2009, or a 5% increase. That’s the highest number recorded by the government since tracking began in 1996.

A Venture-Capital Newbie Shakes Up Silicon Valley (WSJ)
As a newly minted venture capitalist, Marc Andreessen, co-founder of Netscape, aimed for nothing less than big… Like other investors here, he’d been eying Web companies with explosive growth and global star power. But acquiring shares in tech titans like Facebook is tricky…So Mr. Andreessen set out to make his own rules—maneuvering his way into hot private deals at huge cost.

U.S. Braced for Fights With Pakistanis in Bin Laden Raid (NYT)
President Obama insisted that the assault force hunting down Osama bin Laden last week be large enough to fight its way out of Pakistan if confronted by hostile local police officers and troops, senior administration and military officials said Monday. In revealing additional details about planning for the mission, senior officials also said that two teams of specialists were on standby: One to bury Bin Laden if he was killed, and a second composed of lawyers, interrogators and translators in case he was captured alive.

Arnold Schwarzenegger, Maria Shriver announce separation (LA Times)
Shriver has been residing apart from the actor-turned-politician for the last few weeks. The former first couple confirmed the separation in a joint statement released Monday after questions from The Times…Over the years, the marriage between the international celebrity and the daughter of the Kennedy dynasty has come under close scrutiny, especially during the 2003 recall of Gov. Gray Davis, when The Times reported on Schwarzenegger’s lengthy history of groping women. At the time, Shriver defended her husband, helping lift him to victory in the free-for-all contest.



Article courtesy of Dealbreaker

Microsoft In $7B Skype Deal? Oh, How They Laughed When eBay Paid $2.6B

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The Microsoft (MSFT) -for-Skype rumor is gaining ground.

GigaOm’s Om Malik earlier today offered a recap of rumors that “have been swirling around Skype” for a week now, with Reuters having written that Google (GOOG) and Facebook were looking for a deal with the Internet calling firm, or maybe looking to buy it. Malik wrote that Microsoft “has entered the mix.”

And tonight, The Wall Street Journal’s Anupreeta Das and Nick Wingfield are writing that Microsoft is “close to a deal to buy Internet phone company Skype Technologies SA for more than $7 billion,” citing anonymous sources.

Negotiations have been “wrapping up” this evening, they write.

eBay (EBAY), which bought Skype for $2.6 billion in October of 2005,  later sold the company in November of 2005 for $1.9 billion in cash, for a net gain of $1.4 billion, and a 30% stake in Skype to private equity shop Silver Lake, the Canada Pension Plan Investment Board, and venture firm Andreessen Horowitz in a leveraged buyout.

eBay listed its 30% stake at $620 million in last year’s 10-K filing, implying a value of roughly $2 billion for Skype.

Obviously, then, a Microsoft bid of this size would represent not just a premium t0 recent valuation, but multiples of the 2009 buyout, if it happens.

Some people thought eBay was crazy when they paid $2.6 billion in 2005, and there were also stories from Silicon Valley that some Skype backers at the time thought they should have asked for much more.

Microsoft ended the fiscal Q3 in March with $50 billion of cash, cash equivalents and short-term investments, and long-term debt of $12 billion.

Remember that bidding for Skype has been a spectator sport for some time. Back in August of last year, TechCrunch reported Cisco Systems (CSCO) was interested, which was then refuted by sources, Eric reported the next day.

Malik himself proposed back in September that Facebook should buy the company, and that it might have to pay $7 billion to $7.5 billion.

Remember, too, that Skype filed for a $100 million public offering last August, led by Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, and Morgan Stanley, which has since been amended multiple times. The latest version, filed last month, lists $860 million in revenue for all of 2010. That would represent 20% revenue growth from the $719 million the company reported in 2009.

Effectively, then, Microsoft would be paying on the order of seven or so times trailing revenue. Skype had a pre-tax loss of $57 million in 2010, according to the filing.

The prospectus from April also records $690 million in long-term debt that was racked up to facilitate the leveraged buyout in 2009, against $142.5 million in cash and equivalents.

Microsoft shares ended the day down 4 cents at $25.83.

Article courtesy of Tech Trader Daily

New early-stage investor Kayweb Angels wants to keep startups in New York

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Kayweb Angels, a new fund for early-stage companies has launched in New York. The fund, started by CEO Haig Kayserian is part of Australia-based web services firm Kayweb.

The firm hopes to provide a step between simple VC investing and major angel infusions, Kayserian told VentureBeat today. The focus on this specific phase of a startup’s life cycle would consist of infusions of money, expert advice from VCs familiar with similar projects, and a major dose of input from developers who have faced the same obstacles and have an “insider’s view.”

“New York is crying out for tech talent, with many, including Mayor Michael Bloomberg, promoting the city as the hub for the best startup ideas, without the tech talent to match,” said Kayserian. “Our experience living and dealing in New York as web developers has made us believers in this notion, and who can argue when you look at the success of New York startups like Foursquare?”

Kayserian argues that the slippage of tech talent to the West Coast, and Silicon Valley specifically, could be slowed or even halted if the angel community spent more time nurturing talent at the developer level.

“Traditional angel investors provide seed capital, which is usually spent by web and mobile startups on building their product. As no product exists, the equity they demand can be as high as a controlling share of the company,” said Kayserian.

“VCs similarly provide the capital at seed stage, and almost always ensure you lose decisions [over controlling] your startup. They can do this as [the startups] are very fresh and have no product to show,” he said.

In that type of climate, Kayserian said there is a real need for a new class of investors who help startups build a product for a more modest level of equity, where the developers maintain a controlling share of the business.

That would mean that when the time comes for a startup to approach a traditional angel investor or VC, they would already have a version of their product built. Startups would then theoretically be in a stronger negotiating position when it comes to control and other general management issues.

Kayserian said that Kayweb Angels expects to hold a portfolio of five investment projects by the end of summer and add a further five between then and the following summer.

The company’s usual development commitment is valued at between $150,000 to $300,000 at the seed stage. With 10 investments planned over the coming year, it aims to have a fund size of around $2 million.

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Article courtesy of VentureBeat » deals

What’s cooler than a million dollars? Changing a million lives

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Impact investingHenry Ford once said that a business takes makes nothing but money is a poor business. Impact investing takes that thought to a new level.

Impact investors look for businesses which have a positive social or environmental impact as well as a giving a financial return. These enterprises can be anything from schools to mobile carriers serving the poor. Can profit-led companies solve social problems? Impact investors think they can.

One of the pioneers in the field is the Omidyar network, created by Pierre Omidyar, the founder of eBay, and his wife Pam. Amy Klement, who leads Omidyar Network’s Access to Capital initiative (and previously headed up payments at PayPal) told me that Omidyar’s approach to philanthropy was formed by eBay. “By providing tools and a platform he saw what people could do with opportunities. Ebay created more than 1 million new entrepreneurs” Klement said.

The Omidyar’s initially created a non-profit, family foundation but quickly realised that this imposed a lot of restrictions on what they could do. It was very difficult to make for-profit investments in social enterprises. “According to the tax laws if something is a business it can’t be for good.” explained Klement. ”Through eBay the Omidyars had seen that businesses can have social impact and lasting social impact. They are sustainable, they are scalable in a way that non-profits generally aren’t.”

So the Omidyars created a new organisation which could invest. The network uses a range of tools including non-profit grants, direct equity investments, debt investments and also invests in funds like the Ignia venture capital fund (of which more later). It has made grants to, or invested in companies like Wikipedia and P2P microfinance lenders Kiva.

Profit and loss is easy to measure but how do you measure social impact? Klement explains. “We look at reach and engagement. Reach you can think of as breadth; the number of lives touched and and there we look for scale. We want to touch hundreds of thousands, if not millions, of lives. Engagement is depth. To what extent are we touching those lives. How deep is the impact?”

One of the network’s current investments is in Bridge International Acadamies, a chain of schools based in Nairobi, Kenya and founded by an ex-technology entrepreneur. “He founded this school in a box model. It’s a highly replicable franchise model where he can scale these schools quite quickly. The education system in Kenya is completely broken. Teachers show up about 50 percent of the time. Even when they do show up the average teaching time per day is about 90 minutes. The free government schools are not really free by the time people pay for uniforms and supplies and often bribes to the teachers” said Klement.

The Bridge International schools cost less than $4 per pupil per month which is in line with the costs of the government schools. There are now 25 schools making Bridge international the largest chain of schools on the African continent, and that will expand to 100 by the end of the year. Within 5 years the schools will serve a million children.

Another investment is D.light which makes solar lanterns to replace kerosene lamps. Kerosene causes millions of burns a year and serious respiratory system problems. One use is equivalent to smoking 2 packs of cigarettes. D.light has shipped more than a million lanterns to India, Africa, Haiti and is poised for exponential growth.

Klement told me that once you screen for social impact, this type of investing is similar to traditional VC investing but “We are prepared to take more risk because we are entering markets that are less developed” like India and sub-saharn Africa. The network invests in the range of 1 to 3 million per deal. The Omidyar Network is also one of the investors in the $100 million Ignia fund, a VC fund based in Mexico which invests in businesses which provide products and services to bottom of the pyramid (BOP) people, the poorest sector of society, but expects venture capital-level returns.

I asked founder Álvaro Rodríguez Arregui why he started the fund. “There is tremendous lack of access to basic, quality products and services in the base of the pyramid.” he said. The poorest people often pay over the odds for goods and services. If you don’t have a credit history you can’t get a post-paid mobile phone plan and pre-paid minutes are a lot more expensive. If you live in an area with no electricity you have to pay someone more to charge your phone.

Ignia’s definition of positive impact is the following: ”If you provide this product or service to the BOP , will it improve their quality of life? The way we define our impact is providing access to basic products and services to as many people as possible as soon as possible. The only way to grow as fast as possible is through returns. The more profitable you are you faster you grow and the faster you deliver on your mission.” Ignia invests in a range of sectors from healthcare to financial services and Telecommunications.

Rodríguez Arregui started fundraising for Ignia in November 2007. It was a challenge. There was the small matter of the financial crisis and Ignia invests in a company for up to 15 years, a longer horizon that most investors are used to. But there was a more fundamental problem. ”We are at the intersection of VC and impact investing. The biggest challenge was definitely fund-raising because not many people believe that intersection exists. Because of the way we have been educated, we believe that it is either impact or returns and that there is a conflict between those two. In that there is an embedded philosophy which is ‘profit is bad’ We don’t believe that is the case.”

“I am a huge believer that businesses with purpose end up being significantly stronger than those that don’t have a purpose. I am convinced that when you wake up in the morning every day to try to address a mission, it’s a much stronger motivator than when you walk into the office every day and just want to make a buck” asserts Rodríguez Arregui.

It’s early days for Ignia but its star investment Finestrella has grown 9-fold in the last year. Finestrella provides affordable, post-paid mobile phone plans to the BOP. 86 percent of people in Mexico have access to a mobile phone but they only take incoming calls. Outgoing calls are made on public pay phones which are much cheaper than pre-paid minutes. People still spend up to 30 percent of their income on mobile services.

Finestrella has defined a set of algorithms which are used to assess the creditworthiness of people who don’t have an official employment history, bank account or credit rating. If they meet the criteria, customers are offered a post-paid mobile phone plan at much lower rates than pre-paid.

Finestrella started in 2010 and will have 35,000 customers by the end of this year. It already has $8 million in revenue (whichis considerable in a country like Mexico) and is growing exponentially. The target is to have 800,000 customers by 2015.  A couple of Silicon Valley VC funds, one of which is  Storm Ventures, have also invested in Finestrella.

One of Ignia’s investment team Joshua Motta explained why BOP businesses can make excellent returns. “Those activities which have the highest financial returns tend to have the highest social returns. Major corporations and even entrepreneurs have overlooked the BOP segment of the population and dismissed them outright simply because of their low earning power. But aggregated (BOP is 70 percent of the population in Mexico) the BOP actually has a huge amount of disposable income” according to Motta.

Motta maintains that corporations often don’t understand the needs of the BOP and just sell their standard products more cheaply in emerging markets. This strategy is often ineffective. Procter and Gamble discovered this with their detergent. ”In Western markets the quantity sold per unit is quite large. The BOP can’t afford a gallon of detergent. What P&G discovered was that if they used smaller packet sizes, literally single use tablets, they were able to sell substantially in the BOP.” said Motta.

I asked Klement and Rodríguez Arregui what trends they see in impact investing. Both see momentum picking up and more money coming into the sector. Companies like Wells Fargo and J P Morgan are putting money into this new asset class. Rodríguez Arregui thinks that a lot of the talent in the social investing world comes from the non-profit sector rather than business and more business expertise is needed.

Finally, Rodríguez Arregui explains that people need to think hard about why they want to get into impact investing. ”Do you want to do good or do you want to feel good? You need to be extremely clear on what you want to do. It’s much easier to feel good by giving away meals to starving kids in Sudan but you are not going to solve any systemic problem in the world by doing that. The outcomes of impact investing are much more long-term. This is business and business is messy and you have to make hard decisions. When your only purpose is to feel good you are not willing to make those hard decisions” he concludes.

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Article courtesy of VentureBeat » deals

Goldman Sachs Shareholder Needs A Xanax

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“I would not at this moment say that any financial services firm, especially Goldman, who was preeminent during that whole time, is out of the woods on this,” said Peter Sorrentino, a senior portfolio manager at Huntington Asset Advisors in Cincinnati, which manages $14.8 billion, including almost 135,000 Goldman Sachs shares. “At this juncture, given the magnitude of what happened, I don’t know what the time window is…I still think we’re one headline away from this stock getting clobbered.” [Bloomberg]



Article courtesy of Dealbreaker

Intel: Even Some Bears See Advantages In The Third Dimension

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Response continues to come in to Intel‘s (INTC) announcement yesterday of its intentions for manufacturing of 3-D circuits, the so-called “Tri-Gate Transistor,” and the bulls are encouraged to see Intel flexing its traditional processing muscle in a significant way. Even some bears concede the potential advantages.

R.W. Baird’s Tristan Gerra writes that Intel’s innovation “significantly raises barriers of entry relative to the competition [...] likely helping Intel gain traction in handheld devices starting next year while reinforcing the company’s lead in high-performance CPU architectures where solid growth opportunities continue to exist.” He reiterated an Outperform rating on the stock.

Jonathan Pitzer of Credit Suisse, who also has an Outperform rating, sees Intel regaining the high-ground in terms of lead time over the competition: That lead time was a year to a year and a half in the ’90s, he writes, but shrunk to just six to twelve months after the company moved 300 millimeter wafers. But now,

By incorporating tri-gate transistor technology in their P1270 process (INTC name for 22nm), we believe (1) the relative process gap is poised to widen to over 24 months – and (2) INTC’s process lead which has mostly been a TIME advantage is now increasingly becoming a TIME AND CAPABILITY advantage – i.e. defining process technology solely on the most critical line width/process node is increasingly understating the importance of core transistor design/material choices/process flow to device performance – one fab’s 45nm is significantly different than another’s.

Bears such as Nomura Equity Research analyst Romit Shah, who also has a Neutral, nevertheless sees some threat to ARM Holdings (ARMH) from this move.

Intel’s 22-nanometer strategy should alleviate investors’ concerns about ARM devices from Nvidia (NVDA) and Qualcomm (QCOM) encroaching on Intel’s core business. In the server market where ARM’s low power is an appeal to IT managers, Intel’s improvement in power efficiency , along with a more mature x86 software ecosystem, should push out the threats from ARM.

Roth Capital analyst Arnab Chanda , who also has the stock at Neutral, is less optimistic about the immediate payoff: “While we believe 22nm will be a key part of INTC’s effort into lower power, we do not expect significant success with tablets/smartphones for the next 12 months.”

Intel shares today are up 7 cents, or 0.3%, at $23.57.

Article courtesy of Tech Trader Daily